Jerez v Plasencia prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 21:30

Jerez 0–0 Plasencia JEREZ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Jerez win~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.077

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Jerez win at 65%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Jerez 65% before kick-off, 64% now. 0–0 · 64–20–15
1′KICK-OFF Jerez v Plasencia
24′Jerez find the net on 23′. 1–0. 1–0 · 84–12–5
24′We said Jerez at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–12–5
24′⚽ GOAL · 23' Jerez 1–0 Plasencia
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Jerez win: 65% at kick-off, 84% now
25′GOAL DISALLOWED · 25' Jerez
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Jerez win: 65% at kick-off, 58% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Jerez win: 65% at kick-off, 55% now
39′We said Jerez at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 53%. 0–0 · 53–30–16
45′HALF-TIME Jerez 0–0 Plasencia
46′SECOND HALF Jerez 0–0 Plasencia
48′We said Jerez at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–35–16
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.2 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 45–40–15
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Jerez win: 65% at kick-off, 45% now
57′We said Jerez at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–41–15
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Jerez win 43%)
63′We said Jerez at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–47–14
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Jerez win: 65% at kick-off, 35% now
69′We said Jerez at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–54–13
74′We said Jerez at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–61–11
77′We said Jerez at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–66–10
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Jerez win: 65% at kick-off, 24% now
81′We said Jerez at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–74–7
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Jerez win: 65% at kick-off, 15% now
84′We said Jerez at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–82–5
88′We said Jerez at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–87–4
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Jerez win: 65% at kick-off, 5% now
93′We said Jerez at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–95–2
FTFULL TIME Jerez 0–0 Plasencia
FTJerez 0–0 Plasencia · Jerez win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Jerez are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Jerez 65%, draw 20%, Plasencia 15%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Jerez v PlasenciaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · postponed, not graded

Jerez win65%

Draw20%

Plasencia win15%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 18:00

RoundGroup 14 · matchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Jerez

Plasencia

4Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Jerez	6	+2	10
16	Plasencia	6	−5	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · jerez winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · postponed, not graded

65% The market–

Us65%

We make Jerez a 65% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.0, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Jerez v Plasencia~~2.23 – 0.95

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 5~~6 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Jerez win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jerez win	65%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Plasencia win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Jerez or draw	85%	–	–
Jerez clean sheet	39%	–	–
Plasencia clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.0%

0123450 5.2 3.8 2.1 1 9.0 9.3 4.3 2 10.0 9.2 4.4 3 7.3 6.7 3.2 4 4.2 3.8 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Jerez down, Plasencia across0–5 goals a side shown (96.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,460 Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jerez at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Plasencia away: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.23 goals for Jerez, 0.95 for Plasencia. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~JER 1–0 PLA · PLA 0–3 JER · JER 0–2 PLA · PLA 2–0 JER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 6 Sept

JEREZ

DWLLWW2–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 4–1 · 1–0

PLASENCIA

DLLLDW0–0 · 2–4 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 4–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Azuaga	7	+11	18
2	Moralo	7	+7	17
3	Llerenense	6	+5	16
4	Villanovense	7	+5	13
5	Castuera	6	+9	12
6	Jerez	6	+2	10
7	Cabeza Buey	7	+1	9
8	Villafranca	6	0	9
9	Puebla Calzada	7	+1	8
10	CD Zafra	6	+1	8
11	Montijo	7	−2	8
12	Gévora	7	−3	8
13	Santa Amalia	6	+1	7
14	Jaraíz	7	−4	5
15	Quintana	6	−4	5
16	Plasencia	6	−5	5
17	Atlético Pueblonuevo	7	−11	3
18	Guadiana	7	−14	1