Jaraíz v Guadiana prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

JaraízDrawGuadiana

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Jaraíz 70%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Jaraíz are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Jaraíz 70%, draw 19%, Guadiana 11%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Jaraíz v GuadianaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Jaraíz win70%

Draw19%

Guadiana win11%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 14 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Jaraíz

Guadiana

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Jaraíz	7	−4	5
18	Guadiana	7	−14	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · jaraíz winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

70% The market–

Us70%

We make Jaraíz a 70% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–0.8, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Jaraíz v Guadiana~~2.34 – 0.81

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 5 v 1~~16 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jaraíz win	70%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Guadiana win	11%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Jaraíz or draw	89%	–	–
Jaraíz clean sheet	45%	–	–
Guadiana clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.5%

0123450 5.3 3.2 1 9.8 8.7 3.3 2 11.5 9.1 3.7 3 8.8 7.0 2.8 4 5.2 4.1 5 2.6 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Jaraíz down, Guadiana across0–5 goals a side shown (96.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,464 Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Jaraíz at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Guadiana away: 0.33 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

2.34 goals for Jaraíz, 0.81 for Guadiana. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 12 Sept

JARAÍZ

LLWLDL2–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 2–3

GUADIANA

LLDLLL0–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 1–4 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Llerenense	7	+8	19
2	Azuaga	7	+11	18
3	Moralo	7	+7	17
4	Castuera	7	+9	13
5	Villanovense	7	+5	13
6	Jerez	7	+2	11
7	Villafranca	7	0	10
8	CD Zafra	7	+1	9
9	Cabeza Buey	7	+1	9
10	Puebla Calzada	7	+1	8
11	Montijo	7	−2	8
12	Gévora	7	−3	8
13	Santa Amalia	7	−2	7
14	Quintana	7	−4	6
15	Plasencia	7	−5	6
16	Jaraíz	7	−4	5
17	Atlético Pueblonuevo	7	−11	3
18	Guadiana	7	−14	1