Jaraíz v Cabeza Buey prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Jaraíz 0–0 Cabeza Buey JARAÍZ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Jaraíz win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.799

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Jaraíz win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Jaraíz was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–28
2′Much as we predicted: Jaraíz was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–27–27
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Jaraíz win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Jaraíz win: 45% at kick-off, 36% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Jaraíz win 35%)
46′SECOND HALF Jaraíz 0–0 Cabeza Buey
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Jaraíz win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Jaraíz win 35%)
50′🟥 RED CARD · 50' Cabeza Buey
90′🟥 RED CARD · 50' Cabeza Buey
FTFULL TIME Jaraíz 0–0 Cabeza Buey
FTJaraíz 0–0 Cabeza Buey · Jaraíz win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Jaraíz win45%

Draw28%

Cabeza Buey win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Jaraíz

Cabeza Buey

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Cabeza Buey	5	0	5
14	Jaraíz	5	−3	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · jaraíz winPublished 11 Oct 16:29

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Jaraíz a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jaraíz win	45%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Cabeza Buey win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Jaraíz or draw	73%	–	–
Jaraíz clean sheet	36%	–	–
Cabeza Buey clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.5 8.4 4.7 1 11.6 12.9 6.4 2.3 2 8.6 8.7 4.5 3 4.1 4.2 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jaraíz down, Cabeza Buey across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,443 Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.2% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jaraíz at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Cabeza Buey away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Jaraíz, 1.04 for Cabeza Buey. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~JAR 2–1 CAB · CAB 0–0 JAR

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

JARAÍZ

LDLLWL0–2 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–2

CABEZA BUEY

WWLLDD1–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Azuaga	5	+12	15
2	Moralo	5	+4	11
3	Llerenense	4	+3	10
4	Castuera	4	+5	9
5	Puebla Calzada	5	+4	8
6	Gévora	5	−1	8
7	CD Zafra	4	+2	7
8	Villanovense	5	+1	7
9	Santa Amalia	5	+1	6
10	Villafranca	5	−1	6
11	Montijo	5	−2	6
12	Cabeza Buey	5	0	5
13	Jerez	4	−2	4
14	Jaraíz	5	−3	4
15	Quintana	4	−3	4
16	Atlético Pueblonuevo	5	−5	3
17	Plasencia	4	−6	1
18	Guadiana	5	−9	1