Guadiana v Villanovense prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:02

Guadiana 0–2 Villanovense VILLANOVENSE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Villanovense win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.420

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Villanovense win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Villanovense 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 26–27–47
1′KICK-OFF Guadiana v Villanovense
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Villanovense win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
45′HALF-TIME Guadiana 0–0 Villanovense
46′Villanovense find the net on 46′. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–17–78
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Villanovense win 36%)
46′SECOND HALF Guadiana 0–0 Villanovense
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Guadiana 0–1 Villanovense
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Villanovense win: 47% at kick-off, 78% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Villanovense win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 17%)
47′A goal for Villanovense on 47′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Guadiana 0–2 Villanovense
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Villanovense win: 47% at kick-off, 95% now
48′We said Villanovense at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
49′We said Villanovense at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 22–43–35 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
52′We said Villanovense at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 21–45–34 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 20–47–32 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Villanovense win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
58′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–2 · 0–3–97
FTFULL TIME Guadiana 0–2 Villanovense
FTGuadiana 0–2 Villanovense · Villanovense win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Villanovense are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Guadiana 26%, draw 27%, Villanovense 47%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Guadiana v VillanovenseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Guadiana win26%

Draw27%

Villanovense win47%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:30

RoundGroup 14 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Guadiana

Villanovense

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Villanovense	6	+3	10
18	Guadiana	6	−12	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · villanovense winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Villanovense a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Guadiana v Villanovense~~1.01 – 1.48

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 6 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 1 v 10~~18 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Guadiana win	26%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Villanovense win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Guadiana or draw	53%	–	–
Guadiana clean sheet	24%	–	–
Villanovense clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 9.4 11.6 8.9 4.5 1 7.9 12.6 8.7 4.4 2 4.3 6.1 4.4 2.2 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Guadiana down, Villanovense across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,453 Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.2% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Guadiana at home: 0.67 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 3). Villanovense away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Guadiana, 1.48 for Villanovense. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 6 Sept

GUADIANA

LLLDLL0–1 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 1–4

VILLANOVENSE

LLWWDW1–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Azuaga	7	+11	18
2	Moralo	7	+7	17
3	Llerenense	6	+5	16
4	Castuera	6	+9	12
5	Villanovense	6	+3	10
6	Jerez	6	+2	10
7	Cabeza Buey	7	+1	9
8	Villafranca	6	0	9
9	Puebla Calzada	7	+1	8
10	CD Zafra	6	+1	8
11	Montijo	7	−2	8
12	Gévora	7	−3	8
13	Santa Amalia	6	+1	7
14	Jaraíz	7	−4	5
15	Quintana	6	−4	5
16	Plasencia	6	−5	5
17	Atlético Pueblonuevo	7	−11	3
18	Guadiana	6	−12	1