Guadiana v Jerez prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Guadiana 1–4 Jerez JEREZ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Jerez win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.581

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Jerez win at 38%.
2′A goal for Jerez on 2′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 17–20–63
2′KICK-OFF Guadiana v Jerez
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Jerez win: 38% at kick-off, 63% now
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Jerez win: 38% at kick-off, 63% now
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Jerez win: 38% at kick-off, 63% now
5′A goal for Jerez on 2′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 16–20–64
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Jerez win: 38% at kick-off, 63% now
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Guadiana 1–1 Jerez
23′⚽ GOAL · 2' Guadiana 1–1 Jerez
23′⚽ GOAL · 8' Guadiana 1–1 Jerez
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Jerez win: 38% at kick-off, 36% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Jerez win: 38% at kick-off, 63% now
26′8′ and it is 1–1: Guadiana have scored. 1–1 · 34–30–36
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Jerez win: 38% at kick-off, 36% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Jerez win: 38% at kick-off, 63% now
27′8′ and it is 1–1: Guadiana have scored. 1–1 · 34–31–36
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Jerez win: 38% at kick-off, 36% now
45′Little has changed for our model: Jerez 38% before kick-off, 32% now. 1–1 · 31–37–32
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Jerez win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Guadiana 1–1 Jerez
46′SECOND HALF Guadiana 1–1 Jerez
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Jerez win 32%)
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Jerez win 32%)
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Guadiana 1–2 Jerez
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Guadiana 1–3 Jerez
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Guadiana 1–4 Jerez
FTFULL TIME Guadiana 1–4 Jerez
FTGuadiana 1–4 Jerez · Jerez win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Guadiana win36%

Draw26%

Jerez win38%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Guadiana

Jerez

7Days since last match14

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Jerez	4	−2	4
18	Guadiana	5	−9	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · jerez winPublished 11 Oct 16:29

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Jerez a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Guadiana win	36%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Jerez win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Guadiana or draw	62%	–	–
Guadiana clean sheet	24%	–	–
Jerez clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.5 7.7 6.0 3.0 1 7.5 11.8 8.1 4.0 2 5.7 7.9 5.7 2.8 3 2.7 3.8 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Guadiana down, Jerez across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,443 Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.2% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Guadiana at home: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 2). Jerez away: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Guadiana, 1.47 for Jerez. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

GUADIANA

LLLDL0–1 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 0–4

JEREZ

LWDWLL1–2 · 5–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Azuaga	5	+12	15
2	Moralo	5	+4	11
3	Llerenense	4	+3	10
4	Castuera	4	+5	9
5	Puebla Calzada	5	+4	8
6	Gévora	5	−1	8
7	CD Zafra	4	+2	7
8	Villanovense	5	+1	7
9	Santa Amalia	5	+1	6
10	Villafranca	5	−1	6
11	Montijo	5	−2	6
12	Cabeza Buey	5	0	5
13	Jerez	4	−2	4
14	Jaraíz	5	−3	4
15	Quintana	4	−3	4
16	Atlético Pueblonuevo	5	−5	3
17	Plasencia	4	−6	1
18	Guadiana	5	−9	1