Gévora v Montijo prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

GévoraDrawMontijo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Gévora 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Gévora just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Gévora 36%, draw 29%, Montijo 35%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Gévora v MontijoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Gévora win36%

Draw29%

Montijo win35%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 14 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gévora

Montijo

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Montijo	7	−2	8
12	Gévora	7	−3	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gévora winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Gévora a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gévora v Montijo~~1.22 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 8~~12 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gévora win	36%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Montijo win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Gévora or draw	65%	–	–
Gévora clean sheet	31%	–	–
Montijo clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 10.1 9.9 6.4 2.6 1 10.1 13.5 7.6 3.1 2 6.6 7.7 4.6 3 2.7 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gévora down, Montijo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,464 Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gévora at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Montijo away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Gévora, 1.20 for Montijo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MON 0–1 GEV · GEV 1–3 MON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 13 Sept

GÉVORA

WDWDLL4–2 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

MONTIJO

LWLWDD0–2 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Llerenense	7	+8	19
2	Azuaga	7	+11	18
3	Moralo	7	+7	17
4	Castuera	7	+9	13
5	Villanovense	7	+5	13
6	Jerez	7	+2	11
7	Villafranca	7	0	10
8	CD Zafra	7	+1	9
9	Cabeza Buey	7	+1	9
10	Puebla Calzada	7	+1	8
11	Montijo	7	−2	8
12	Gévora	7	−3	8
13	Santa Amalia	7	−2	7
14	Quintana	7	−4	6
15	Plasencia	7	−5	6
16	Jaraíz	7	−4	5
17	Atlético Pueblonuevo	7	−11	3
18	Guadiana	7	−14	1