Gévora v Llerenense prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Gévora 1–2 Llerenense LLERENENSE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Llerenense win~~38%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.575

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.642

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Llerenense win at 38%.
2′Much as we predicted: Llerenense was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 33–28–39
3′Much as we predicted: Llerenense was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 33–29–38
43′Llerenense find the net on 28′. 0–0. 0–0 · 27–42–31
45′Llerenense find the net on 28′. 0–0. 0–0 · 27–43–30
50′A red card for Gévora on 26′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 25–46–29
54′A red card for Gévora on 26′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 24–48–27
74′A goal for Gévora on 61′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 84–15–2
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Llerenense win: 38% at kick-off, 27% now
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Gévora win 24%)
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Llerenense win: 38% at kick-off, 2% now
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Gévora win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 15%)
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Gévora 1–1 Llerenense
90′89′ and it is 1–1: Llerenense have scored. 1–1 · 0–100–0
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Gévora win 0%)
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Gévora win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 15%)
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Gévora 1–2 Llerenense
FTFULL TIME Gévora 1–2 Llerenense
FTGévora 1–2 Llerenense · Llerenense win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Gévora win33%

Draw29%

Llerenense win38%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Gévora

Llerenense

7Days since last match14

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Llerenense	4	+3	10
6	Gévora	5	−1	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · llerenense winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

38% The market35%

Us38%

~~Market~~35%

We make Llerenense a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · llerenense win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gévora win	33%	36%	−3
Draw	29%	30%	0
Llerenense win	38%	35%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	41%	47%	−6
Both teams to score	47%	53%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	68%	71%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	21%	26%	−6
Gévora or draw	62%	65%	−3
Gévora clean sheet	30%	–	–
Llerenense clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 10.7 11.3 7.3 3.0 1 10.2 13.5 7.8 3.2 2 6.0 7.1 4.3 3 2.3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gévora down, Llerenense across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,443 Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.2% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gévora at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Llerenense away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Gévora, 1.22 for Llerenense. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~GEV 1–2 LLE · LLE 3–0 GEV

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

GÉVORA

LLWDWD0–3 · 0–5 · 4–2 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–1

LLERENENSE

LWWWWD1–4 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Azuaga	5	+12	15
2	Moralo	5	+4	11
3	Llerenense	4	+3	10
4	Castuera	4	+5	9
5	Puebla Calzada	5	+4	8
6	Gévora	5	−1	8
7	CD Zafra	4	+2	7
8	Villanovense	5	+1	7
9	Santa Amalia	5	+1	6
10	Villafranca	5	−1	6
11	Montijo	5	−2	6
12	Cabeza Buey	5	0	5
13	Jerez	4	−2	4
14	Jaraíz	5	−3	4
15	Quintana	4	−3	4
16	Atlético Pueblonuevo	5	−5	3
17	Plasencia	4	−6	1
18	Guadiana	5	−9	1