CD Zafra v Montijo prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:05

CD Zafra 1–1 Montijo CD ZAFRA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said CD Zafra win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.789

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CD Zafra win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: CD Zafra 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–26
6′Little has changed for our model: CD Zafra 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–28–26
12′11′ and it is 1–0: CD Zafra have scored. 1–0 · 74–17–8
17′11′ and it is 1–0: CD Zafra have scored. 1–0 · 75–18–8
25′Montijo find the net on 23′. 1–1. 1–1 · 42–34–25
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' CD Zafra win: 46% at kick-off, 42% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' CD Zafra win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' CD Zafra win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' CD Zafra win: 46% at kick-off, 42% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' CD Zafra win: 46% at kick-off, 42% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' CD Zafra win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' CD Zafra win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' CD Zafra win: 46% at kick-off, 42% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' CD Zafra win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' CD Zafra win: 46% at kick-off, 42% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' CD Zafra win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' CD Zafra win: 46% at kick-off, 42% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' CD Zafra win: 46% at kick-off, 42% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' CD Zafra win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' CD Zafra win: 46% at kick-off, 42% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' CD Zafra win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
36′Montijo find the net on 23′. 1–1. 1–1 · 39–38–24
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' CD Zafra win: 46% at kick-off, 42% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' CD Zafra win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' CD Zafra win: 46% at kick-off, 39% now
45′HALF-TIME CD Zafra 1–1 Montijo
46′SECOND HALF CD Zafra 1–1 Montijo
FTFULL TIME CD Zafra 1–1 Montijo
FTCD Zafra 1–1 Montijo · CD Zafra win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

CD Zafra win46%

Draw28%

Montijo win26%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

CD Zafra

Montijo

14Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	CD Zafra	4	+2	7
11	Montijo	5	−2	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cd zafra winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

46% The market–

Us46%

We make CD Zafra a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CD Zafra win	46%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Montijo win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
CD Zafra or draw	74%	–	–
CD Zafra clean sheet	39%	–	–
Montijo clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 10.7 8.7 4.5 1 12.6 12.9 6.0 2 9.0 8.4 4.1 3 4.2 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CD Zafra down, Montijo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,443 Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.2% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

CD Zafra at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 2). Montijo away: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for CD Zafra, 0.97 for Montijo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

CD ZAFRA

WWLD1–0 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 0–0

MONTIJO

WLLWLW2–1 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Azuaga	5	+12	15
2	Moralo	5	+4	11
3	Llerenense	4	+3	10
4	Castuera	4	+5	9
5	Puebla Calzada	5	+4	8
6	Gévora	5	−1	8
7	CD Zafra	4	+2	7
8	Villanovense	5	+1	7
9	Santa Amalia	5	+1	6
10	Villafranca	5	−1	6
11	Montijo	5	−2	6
12	Cabeza Buey	5	0	5
13	Jerez	4	−2	4
14	Jaraíz	5	−3	4
15	Quintana	4	−3	4
16	Atlético Pueblonuevo	5	−5	3
17	Plasencia	4	−6	1
18	Guadiana	5	−9	1