Castuera v Llerenense prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CastueraDrawLlerenense

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Castuera 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Castuera are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Castuera 41%, draw 27%, Llerenense 32%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Castuera v LlerenenseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Castuera win41%

Draw27%

Llerenense win32%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 14 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Castuera

Llerenense

4Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · castuera winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 22 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Castuera a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Castuera v Llerenense~~1.42 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 13 v 19~~4 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Castuera win

Published at 42%, 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Castuera win	41%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Llerenense win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Castuera or draw	68%	–	–
Castuera clean sheet	30%	–	–
Llerenense clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.3 8.0 5.3 2.2 1 9.5 12.9 7.3 3.0 2 7.2 8.5 5.1 2.1 3 3.5 4.1 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Castuera down, Llerenense across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,464 Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Castuera at home: 2.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Llerenense away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Castuera, 1.22 for Llerenense. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CAS 3–1 LLE · LLE 2–2 CAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 13 Sept

CASTUERA

LWWWLD0–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 5–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

LLERENENSE

WWDWWW1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Llerenense	7	+8	19
2	Azuaga	7	+11	18
3	Moralo	7	+7	17
4	Castuera	7	+9	13
5	Villanovense	7	+5	13
6	Jerez	7	+2	11
7	Villafranca	7	0	10
8	CD Zafra	7	+1	9
9	Cabeza Buey	7	+1	9
10	Puebla Calzada	7	+1	8
11	Montijo	7	−2	8
12	Gévora	7	−3	8
13	Santa Amalia	7	−2	7
14	Quintana	7	−4	6
15	Plasencia	7	−5	6
16	Jaraíz	7	−4	5
17	Atlético Pueblonuevo	7	−11	3
18	Guadiana	7	−14	1