Home › Football › Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 › Castuera v Atlético Pueblonuevo

Castuera v Atlético Pueblonuevo

Castuera

5–0Full time

Atlético Pueblonuevo

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Castuera 5–0 Atlético Pueblonuevo CASTUERA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Castuera win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.247

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Castuera win at 59%.
1′Much as we predicted: Castuera was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–21–19
7′Much as we predicted: Castuera was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–22–19
37′A goal for Castuera on 30′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–14–5
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Castuera win: 59% at kick-off, 53% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Castuera win: 59% at kick-off, 81% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Castuera win: 59% at kick-off, 53% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Castuera win: 59% at kick-off, 81% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Castuera win: 59% at kick-off, 53% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Castuera win: 59% at kick-off, 81% now
45′45′ and it is 2–0: Castuera have scored. 2–0 · 96–3–1
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Castuera win: 59% at kick-off, 53% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Castuera win: 59% at kick-off, 81% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Castuera 2–0 Atlético Pueblonuevo
45′HALF-TIME Castuera 2–0 Atlético Pueblonuevo
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Castuera win: 59% at kick-off, 96% now
46′SECOND HALF Castuera 2–0 Atlético Pueblonuevo
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Castuera win: 59% at kick-off, 96% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Castuera win: 59% at kick-off, 96% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Castuera win: 59% at kick-off, 96% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Castuera win: 59% at kick-off, 96% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Castuera win: 59% at kick-off, 96% now
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Castuera win: 59% at kick-off, 96% now
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Castuera 4–0 Atlético Pueblonuevo
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Castuera 5–0 Atlético Pueblonuevo
FTFULL TIME Castuera 5–0 Atlético Pueblonuevo
FTCastuera 5–0 Atlético Pueblonuevo · Castuera win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Castuera win59%

Draw22%

Atlético Pueblonuevo win19%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Castuera

Atlético Pueblonuevo

14Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Castuera	4	+5	9
16	Atlético Pueblonuevo	5	−5	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · castuera winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Castuera a 59% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Castuera win	59%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Atlético Pueblonuevo win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Castuera or draw	81%	–	–
Castuera clean sheet	36%	–	–
Atlético Pueblonuevo clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 5.5 4.5 2.6 1 9.1 10.1 5.0 2 9.5 9.5 4.9 3 6.4 6.4 3.3 4 3.3 3.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Castuera down, Atlético Pueblonuevo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,443 Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.2% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Castuera at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Atlético Pueblonuevo away: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.04 goals for Castuera, 1.04 for Atlético Pueblonuevo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ATL 1–2 CAS · CAS 3–3 ATL · CAS 3–2 ATL · ATL 1–0 CAS

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

CASTUERA

LLWLWW1–2 · 0–1 · 5–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–0

ATLÉTICO PUEBLONUEVO

WDLDLD1–0 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Azuaga	5	+12	15
2	Moralo	5	+4	11
3	Llerenense	4	+3	10
4	Castuera	4	+5	9
5	Puebla Calzada	5	+4	8
6	Gévora	5	−1	8
7	CD Zafra	4	+2	7
8	Villanovense	5	+1	7
9	Santa Amalia	5	+1	6
10	Villafranca	5	−1	6
11	Montijo	5	−2	6
12	Cabeza Buey	5	0	5
13	Jerez	4	−2	4
14	Jaraíz	5	−3	4
15	Quintana	4	−3	4
16	Atlético Pueblonuevo	5	−5	3
17	Plasencia	4	−6	1
18	Guadiana	5	−9	1