Cabeza Buey v CD Zafra prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:08

Cabeza Buey 2–1 CD Zafra CABEZA BUEY WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cabeza Buey win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.389

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cabeza Buey win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cabeza Buey was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–29–22
1′KICK-OFF Cabeza Buey v CD Zafra
18′CD Zafra score on 18′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 20–26–54
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Cabeza Buey 0–1 CD Zafra
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Cabeza Buey win: 49% at kick-off, 20% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' CD Zafra win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Cabeza Buey win 20%)
19′We said Cabeza Buey at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–55
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Cabeza Buey win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 16–26–58
31′Cabeza Buey find the net on 30′. 1–1. 1–1 · 42–37–20
31′⚽ GOAL · 30' Cabeza Buey 1–1 CD Zafra
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Cabeza Buey win: 49% at kick-off, 42% now
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Cabeza Buey win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was CD Zafra win 20%)
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Cabeza Buey win 38%)
45′We said Cabeza Buey at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 1–1 · 37–44–19
45′HALF-TIME Cabeza Buey 1–1 CD Zafra
46′Cabeza Buey level it on 31′ through L. Cruz. 1–1. 1–1 · 37–45–19
46′SECOND HALF Cabeza Buey 1–1 CD Zafra
49′A goal for Cabeza Buey on 49′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 82–15–3
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Cabeza Buey 2–1 CD Zafra
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Cabeza Buey win: 49% at kick-off, 82% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Cabeza Buey win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 15%)
50′We published Cabeza Buey at 49%. Our model now makes it 82%. 2–1 · 82–15–3
50′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 82–15–3
51′We said Cabeza Buey at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–48–18 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
62′We published Cabeza Buey at 49%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Cabeza Buey win: 49% at kick-off, 89% now
75′We published Cabeza Buey at 49%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
84′We published Cabeza Buey at 49%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME Cabeza Buey 2–1 CD Zafra
FTCabeza Buey 2–1 CD Zafra · Cabeza Buey win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cabeza Buey are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cabeza Buey 49%, draw 29%, CD Zafra 22%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Cabeza Buey v CD ZafraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Cabeza Buey win49%

Draw29%

CD Zafra win22%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:30

RoundGroup 14 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cabeza Buey

CD Zafra

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	CD Zafra	5	+2	8
12	Cabeza Buey	6	0	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cabeza buey winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Cabeza Buey a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cabeza Buey v CD Zafra~~1.38 – 0.81

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 8~~12 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cabeza Buey win	49%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
CD Zafra win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Cabeza Buey or draw	78%	–	–
Cabeza Buey clean sheet	45%	–	–
CD Zafra clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.7%

0123450 12.4 8.5 3.8 1 14.7 12.8 4.9 2 10.4 8.2 3.4 3 4.9 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cabeza Buey down, CD Zafra across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,453 Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.2% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Cabeza Buey at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). CD Zafra away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Cabeza Buey, 0.81 for CD Zafra. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 6 Sept

CABEZA BUEY

WLLDDD3–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0

CD ZAFRA

WWLDD1–0 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Llerenense	6	+5	16
2	Azuaga	6	+10	15
3	Moralo	6	+6	14
4	Castuera	5	+10	12
5	Villanovense	6	+3	10
6	Jerez	6	+2	10
7	CD Zafra	5	+2	8
8	Puebla Calzada	7	+1	8
9	Gévora	6	−2	8
10	Montijo	6	−2	7
11	Santa Amalia	5	+1	6
12	Cabeza Buey	6	0	6
13	Villafranca	5	−1	6
14	Jaraíz	6	−3	5
15	Quintana	6	−4	5
16	Atlético Pueblonuevo	6	−10	3
17	Plasencia	5	−6	2
18	Guadiana	6	−12	1