Azuaga v Jaraíz prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Azuaga 3–2 Jaraíz AZUAGA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Azuaga win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.288

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Azuaga win at 56%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Azuaga 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–25–19
1′KICK-OFF Azuaga v Jaraíz
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Azuaga win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
42′A goal for Azuaga on 41′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–14–4
42′We said Azuaga at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–14–4
42′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 82–14–4
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Azuaga 1–0 Jaraíz
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Azuaga win: 56% at kick-off, 82% now
45′HALF-TIME Azuaga 1–0 Jaraíz
46′Juaniyo Gomez scores for Azuaga on 43′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–14–4
46′SECOND HALF Azuaga 1–0 Jaraíz
56′Azuaga score on 56′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Azuaga 2–0 Jaraíz
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Azuaga win: 56% at kick-off, 97% now
57′We said Azuaga at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
59′Jaraíz find the net on 59′. 2–1. 2–1 · 84–14–2
59′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 84–14–2
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Azuaga 2–1 Jaraíz
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Azuaga win: 56% at kick-off, 84% now
62′We said Azuaga at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
76′We said Azuaga at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
79′A goal for Azuaga on 79′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
79′We said Azuaga at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Azuaga 3–1 Jaraíz
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Azuaga win: 56% at kick-off, over 99% now
80′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
83′Jaraíz score on 83′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 94–6–0
83′5 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 94–6–0
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Azuaga 3–2 Jaraíz
FTFULL TIME Azuaga 3–2 Jaraíz
FTAzuaga 3–2 Jaraíz · Azuaga win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Azuaga are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Azuaga 56%, draw 25%, Jaraíz 19%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Azuaga v JaraízBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Azuaga win56%

Draw25%

Jaraíz win19%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup 14 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Azuaga

Jaraíz

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Azuaga	6	+10	15
14	Jaraíz	6	−3	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · azuaga winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Azuaga a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Azuaga v Jaraíz~~1.75 – 0.91

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 6 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 5~~2 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Azuaga win	56%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Jaraíz win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Azuaga or draw	81%	–	–
Azuaga clean sheet	41%	–	–
Jaraíz clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.7%

0123450 7.9 5.9 3.0 1 11.7 11.6 5.0 2 10.6 9.4 4.3 3 6.2 5.5 2.5 4 2.8 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Azuaga down, Jaraíz across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,453 Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.2% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.17 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Azuaga at home: 2.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Jaraíz away: 0.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Azuaga, 0.91 for Jaraíz. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.17

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~JAR 1–1 AZU · AZU 1–2 JAR · JAR 2–2 AZU · AZU 2–1 JAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 this season · since 6 Sept

AZUAGA

WWWWWL4–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 0–2

JARAÍZ

DLLWLD2–2 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Llerenense	6	+5	16
2	Azuaga	6	+10	15
3	Moralo	6	+6	14
4	Castuera	5	+10	12
5	Villanovense	6	+3	10
6	Jerez	6	+2	10
7	CD Zafra	5	+2	8
8	Puebla Calzada	7	+1	8
9	Gévora	6	−2	8
10	Montijo	6	−2	7
11	Santa Amalia	5	+1	6
12	Cabeza Buey	6	0	6
13	Villafranca	5	−1	6
14	Jaraíz	6	−3	5
15	Quintana	6	−4	5
16	Atlético Pueblonuevo	6	−10	3
17	Plasencia	5	−6	2
18	Guadiana	6	−12	1