Unión Molinense v Bala Azul prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Unión MolinenseDrawBala Azul

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Unión Molinense 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Unión Molinense are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Unión Molinense 51%, draw 27%, Bala Azul 22%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Unión Molinense v Bala AzulBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Unión Molinense win51%

Draw27%

Bala Azul win22%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 10:45

RoundGroup 13 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Unión Molinense

Bala Azul

15Days since last match15

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Unión Molinense	6	+5	11
9	Bala Azul	6	0	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · unión molinense winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Unión Molinense a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Unión Molinense v Bala Azul~~1.50 – 0.89

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 8~~5 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Unión Molinense win	51%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Bala Azul win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Unión Molinense or draw	78%	–	–
Unión Molinense clean sheet	41%	–	–
Bala Azul clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.2%

0123450 10.1 7.9 3.7 1 13.2 12.5 5.4 2 10.1 8.8 3.9 3 5.1 4.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Unión Molinense down, Bala Azul across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,524 Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.75 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Unión Molinense at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Bala Azul away: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Unión Molinense, 0.89 for Bala Azul. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~UNI 2–1 BAL · BAL 0–0 UNI · UNI 1–1 BAL · BAL 1–1 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 this season · since 6 Sept

UNIÓN MOLINENSE

WDLWDW4–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 3–0

BALA AZUL

DWDLLW2–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Santomera	6	+8	16
2	San Javier	6	+6	14
3	Santa Cruz	7	+2	12
4	UCAM Murcia II	7	+7	11
5	Unión Molinense	6	+5	11
6	Alcantarilla	7	−1	9
7	Águilas II	6	+2	8
8	Atlético Pulpileño	7	0	8
9	Bala Azul	6	0	8
10	Olímpico Totana	6	0	8
11	Los Garres	6	0	8
12	Cartagena LU II	6	−1	8
13	SFC Minerva	6	−1	8
14	Cotillas CD	6	−2	7
15	Balsicas Atlético	6	−5	6
16	Bullas Deportivo	6	−2	5
17	Algar	6	−10	3
18	Mazarrón FC	6	−8	1