UCAM Murcia II v Mazarrón FC prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 11:42

UCAM Murcia II 5–1 Mazarrón FC UCAM MURCIA II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said UCAM Murcia II win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.390

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said UCAM Murcia II win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: UCAM Murcia II 49% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–25
1′KICK-OFF UCAM Murcia II v Mazarrón FC
2′Little has changed for our model: UCAM Murcia II 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–25
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' UCAM Murcia II 1–0 Mazarrón FC
45′HALF-TIME UCAM Murcia II 1–0 Mazarrón FC
46′SECOND HALF UCAM Murcia II 1–0 Mazarrón FC
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' UCAM Murcia II 2–0 Mazarrón FC
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' UCAM Murcia II 3–0 Mazarrón FC
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' UCAM Murcia II 4–0 Mazarrón FC
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' UCAM Murcia II 5–0 Mazarrón FC
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' UCAM Murcia II 5–1 Mazarrón FC
FTFULL TIME UCAM Murcia II 5–1 Mazarrón FC
FTUCAM Murcia II 5–1 Mazarrón FC · UCAM Murcia II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

UCAM Murcia II win49%

Draw26%

Mazarrón FC win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 09:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

UCAM Murcia II

Mazarrón FC

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	UCAM Murcia II	5	+2	5
18	Mazarrón FC	5	−4	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ucam murcia ii winPublished 11 Oct 09:04

49% The market–

Us49%

We make UCAM Murcia II a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UCAM Murcia II win	49%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Mazarrón FC win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
UCAM Murcia II or draw	75%	–	–
UCAM Murcia II clean sheet	34%	–	–
Mazarrón FC clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.6 7.0 4.0 1 10.4 12.0 6.2 2.3 2 8.6 9.1 4.9 3 4.7 4.9 2.7 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+UCAM Murcia II down, Mazarrón FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,519 Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.0% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

UCAM Murcia II at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Mazarrón FC away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for UCAM Murcia II, 1.09 for Mazarrón FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~UCA 3–3 MAZ · MAZ 1–1 UCA · MAZ 0–1 UCA · UCA 3–1 MAZ

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

UCAM MURCIA II

DLWDDL2–2 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–1

MAZARRÓN FC

LLLDLL0–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Santomera	6	+8	16
2	Unión Molinense	6	+5	11
3	San Javier	5	+3	11
4	Santa Cruz	6	+1	9
5	Alcantarilla	6	0	9
6	Atlético Pulpileño	6	+1	8
7	Olímpico Totana	5	+1	8
8	SFC Minerva	5	+1	8
9	Bala Azul	6	0	8
10	Cartagena LU II	6	−1	8
11	Cotillas CD	6	−2	7
12	UCAM Murcia II	5	+2	5
13	Bullas Deportivo	5	+1	5
14	Águilas II	5	0	5
15	Los Garres	5	−1	5
16	Algar	5	−7	3
17	Balsicas Atlético	5	−8	3
18	Mazarrón FC	5	−4	1