Home › Football › Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 › UCAM Murcia II v Alcantarilla

UCAM Murcia II v Alcantarilla

UCAM Murcia II

2–1Full time

Alcantarilla

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04

UCAM Murcia II 2–1 Alcantarilla UCAM MURCIA II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said UCAM Murcia II win~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.170

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said UCAM Murcia II win at 67%.
1′Little has changed for our model: UCAM Murcia II 67% before kick-off, 66% now. 0–0 · 66–21–12
1′KICK-OFF UCAM Murcia II v Alcantarilla
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' UCAM Murcia II win: 67% at kick-off, 57% now
36′We said UCAM Murcia II at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 55%. 0–0 · 55–31–13
38′We said UCAM Murcia II at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–32–13
45′HALF-TIME UCAM Murcia II 0–0 Alcantarilla
46′SECOND HALF UCAM Murcia II 0–0 Alcantarilla
48′We said UCAM Murcia II at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–38–13
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' UCAM Murcia II win: 67% at kick-off, 47% now
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.7 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 45–43–12
56′We said UCAM Murcia II at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–44–12
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was UCAM Murcia II win 44%)
62′We said UCAM Murcia II at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–49–11
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' UCAM Murcia II win: 67% at kick-off, 37% now
68′We said UCAM Murcia II at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–56–10
72′We said UCAM Murcia II at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–62–9
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' UCAM Murcia II win: 67% at kick-off, 27% now
76′We said UCAM Murcia II at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–68–8
80′We said UCAM Murcia II at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–75–6
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' UCAM Murcia II win: 67% at kick-off, 17% now
82′UCAM Murcia II score on 82′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 95–5–0
82′We said UCAM Murcia II at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' UCAM Murcia II 1–0 Alcantarilla
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' UCAM Murcia II win: 67% at kick-off, 95% now
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' UCAM Murcia II win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 79%)
85′UCAM Murcia II find the net on 85′. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
85′We said UCAM Murcia II at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' UCAM Murcia II 2–0 Alcantarilla
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' UCAM Murcia II win: 67% at kick-off, over 99% now
87′A goal for Alcantarilla on 87′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 97–3–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' UCAM Murcia II 2–1 Alcantarilla
88′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 97–3–0
FTFULL TIME UCAM Murcia II 2–1 Alcantarilla
FTUCAM Murcia II 2–1 Alcantarilla · UCAM Murcia II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

UCAM Murcia II are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: UCAM Murcia II 67%, draw 21%, Alcantarilla 12%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on UCAM Murcia II v AlcantarillaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 09:32 · locked at kick-off

UCAM Murcia II win67%

Draw21%

Alcantarilla win12%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:30

RoundGroup 13 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

UCAM Murcia II

Alcantarilla

13Days since last match14

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Alcantarilla	6	0	9
6	UCAM Murcia II	6	+6	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ucam murcia ii winFirst published 18 Oct 09:32 · locked at kick-off

67% The market–

Us67%

We make UCAM Murcia II a 67% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · UCAM Murcia II v Alcantarilla~~2.02 – 0.70

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 9~~6 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UCAM Murcia II win	67%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Alcantarilla win	12%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
UCAM Murcia II or draw	88%	–	–
UCAM Murcia II clean sheet	50%	–	–
Alcantarilla clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.0%

0123450 7.6 4.6 1 13.0 9.6 3.3 2 13.0 8.8 3.2 3 8.7 5.8 2.1 4 4.6 3.0 5 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+UCAM Murcia II down, Alcantarilla across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,524 Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.17 goals a meeting; 0 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

UCAM Murcia II at home: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Alcantarilla away: 0.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.02 goals for UCAM Murcia II, 0.70 for Alcantarilla. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.17

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~UCA 0–0 ALC · ALC 1–0 UCA · ALC 1–1 UCA · UCA 1–0 ALC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 this season · since 5 Sept

UCAM MURCIA II

LWDDLW1–2 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 5–1

ALCANTARILLA

DDWWDL1–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Santomera	6	+8	16
2	San Javier	6	+6	14
3	Unión Molinense	6	+5	11
4	Santa Cruz	6	+1	9
5	Alcantarilla	6	0	9
6	UCAM Murcia II	6	+6	8
7	Águilas II	6	+2	8
8	Atlético Pulpileño	6	+1	8
9	Bala Azul	6	0	8
10	Olímpico Totana	6	0	8
11	Los Garres	6	0	8
12	Cartagena LU II	6	−1	8
13	SFC Minerva	6	−1	8
14	Cotillas CD	6	−2	7
15	Balsicas Atlético	6	−5	6
16	Bullas Deportivo	6	−2	5
17	Algar	6	−10	3
18	Mazarrón FC	6	−8	1