SFC Minerva v Cotillas CD prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SFC MinervaDrawCotillas CD

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:30

Before kick-off · Match result · SFC Minerva 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SFC Minerva are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SFC Minerva 39%, draw 30%, Cotillas CD 31%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on SFC Minerva v Cotillas CDBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

SFC Minerva win39%

Draw30%

Cotillas CD win31%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 10:30

RoundGroup 13 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SFC Minerva

Cotillas CD

14Days since last match15

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	SFC Minerva	6	−1	8
14	Cotillas CD	6	−2	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sfc minerva winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make SFC Minerva a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SFC Minerva v Cotillas CD~~1.16 – 1.01

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 7~~13 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SFC Minerva win	39%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Cotillas CD win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
SFC Minerva or draw	69%	–	–
SFC Minerva clean sheet	37%	–	–
Cotillas CD clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 12.4 11.1 5.8 2.0 1 12.7 13.4 6.5 2.3 2 7.6 7.5 3.8 3 3.0 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SFC Minerva down, Cotillas CD across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,529 Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.9% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

SFC Minerva at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Cotillas CD away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for SFC Minerva, 1.01 for Cotillas CD. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 this season · since 6 Sept

SFC MINERVA

WDLDWL1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–2

COTILLAS CD

WDLLWL2–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Santomera	7	+12	19
2	San Javier	7	+2	14
3	Santa Cruz	7	+2	12
4	UCAM Murcia II	7	+7	11
5	Unión Molinense	6	+5	11
6	Águilas II	7	+3	11
7	Alcantarilla	7	−1	9
8	Atlético Pulpileño	7	0	8
9	Bala Azul	6	0	8
10	Olímpico Totana	6	0	8
11	Cartagena LU II	6	−1	8
12	Los Garres	7	−1	8
13	SFC Minerva	6	−1	8
14	Cotillas CD	6	−2	7
15	Balsicas Atlético	6	−5	6
16	Algar	7	−9	6
17	Bullas Deportivo	6	−2	5
18	Mazarrón FC	7	−9	1