SFC Minerva v Águilas II prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:09

SFC Minerva 0–2 Águilas II ÁGUILAS II WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Águilas II win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.561

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Águilas II win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Águilas II 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 30–30–39
1′KICK-OFF SFC Minerva v Águilas II
12′Little has changed for our model: Águilas II 39% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 29–33–38
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Águilas II win 34%)
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' SFC Minerva 0–1 Águilas II
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Águilas II win 32%)
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Águilas II win 32%)
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Águilas II win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME SFC Minerva 0–1 Águilas II
45′⚽ GOAL · 40' SFC Minerva 0–1 Águilas II
46′SECOND HALF SFC Minerva 0–1 Águilas II
76′🟥 RED CARD · 75' SFC Minerva
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' SFC Minerva 0–2 Águilas II
90′🟥 RED CARD · 94' SFC Minerva
FTFULL TIME SFC Minerva 0–2 Águilas II
FTSFC Minerva 0–2 Águilas II · Águilas II win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

SFC Minerva win30%

Draw31%

Águilas II win39%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 10:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

SFC Minerva

Águilas II

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	SFC Minerva	5	+1	8
14	Águilas II	5	0	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · águilas ii winPublished 11 Oct 10:36

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Águilas II a 39% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.1, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SFC Minerva win	30%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Águilas II win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
SFC Minerva or draw	61%	–	–
SFC Minerva clean sheet	33%	–	–
Águilas II clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.7%

0123450 13.7 13.7 7.9 3.0 1 11.5 13.6 7.3 2.8 2 5.7 6.2 3.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SFC Minerva down, Águilas II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,519 Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.0% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SFC Minerva at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Águilas II away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.94 goals for SFC Minerva, 1.12 for Águilas II. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~AGU 2–4 SFC · SFC 0–0 AGU · SFC 0–1 AGU · AGU 0–1 SFC

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

SFC MINERVA

WWDLDW3–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

ÁGUILAS II

DDDDDD2–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Santomera	6	+8	16
2	Unión Molinense	6	+5	11
3	San Javier	5	+3	11
4	Santa Cruz	6	+1	9
5	Alcantarilla	6	0	9
6	Atlético Pulpileño	6	+1	8
7	Olímpico Totana	5	+1	8
8	SFC Minerva	5	+1	8
9	Bala Azul	6	0	8
10	Cartagena LU II	6	−1	8
11	Cotillas CD	6	−2	7
12	UCAM Murcia II	5	+2	5
13	Bullas Deportivo	5	+1	5
14	Águilas II	5	0	5
15	Los Garres	5	−1	5
16	Algar	5	−7	3
17	Balsicas Atlético	5	−8	3
18	Mazarrón FC	5	−4	1