Santomera v San Javier prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Santomera 4–0 San Javier SANTOMERA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Santomera win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.557

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Santomera win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Santomera was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–24–36
1′KICK-OFF Santomera v San Javier
13′A goal for Santomera on 13′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 64–19–16
13′We published Santomera at 40%. Our model now makes it 64%. 1–0 · 64–19–16
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Santomera 1–0 San Javier
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Santomera win: 40% at kick-off, 64% now
14′We published Santomera at 40%. Our model now makes it 65%. 1–0 · 65–19–16
21′Santomera score on 20′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 85–10–5
21′We published Santomera at 40%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–0 · 85–10–5
21′⚽ GOAL · 20' Santomera 2–0 San Javier
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Santomera win: 40% at kick-off, 85% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Santomera win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
44′We published Santomera at 40%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–8–3
45′HALF-TIME Santomera 2–0 San Javier
46′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 2–0 · 90–7–2
46′SECOND HALF Santomera 2–0 San Javier
59′Santomera find the net on 58′. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
59′We published Santomera at 40%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Santomera 3–0 San Javier
69′We published Santomera at 40%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Santomera win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
81′A goal for Santomera on 81′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Santomera 4–0 San Javier
82′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Santomera 4–0 San Javier
FTSantomera 4–0 San Javier · Santomera win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Santomera just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Santomera 40%, draw 24%, San Javier 36%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Santomera v San JavierBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Santomera win40%

Draw24%

San Javier win36%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 13 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Santomera

San Javier

14Days since last match13

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · santomera winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Santomera a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Santomera v San Javier~~1.63 – 1.55

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 16 v 14~~1 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Santomera win	40%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
San Javier win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Santomera or draw	64%	–	–
Santomera clean sheet	22%	–	–
San Javier clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.0 6.3 5.1 2.7 1 6.6 10.7 7.8 4.1 2 5.5 8.2 6.2 3.2 3 3.0 4.4 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Santomera down, San Javier across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,524 Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Santomera at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). San Javier away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Santomera, 1.55 for San Javier. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 this season · since 5 Sept

SANTOMERA

WDWWWW2–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 3–0

SAN JAVIER

WDWDWW3–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Santomera	6	+8	16
2	San Javier	6	+6	14
3	Santa Cruz	7	+2	12
4	UCAM Murcia II	7	+7	11
5	Unión Molinense	6	+5	11
6	Alcantarilla	7	−1	9
7	Águilas II	6	+2	8
8	Atlético Pulpileño	7	0	8
9	Bala Azul	6	0	8
10	Olímpico Totana	6	0	8
11	Los Garres	6	0	8
12	Cartagena LU II	6	−1	8
13	SFC Minerva	6	−1	8
14	Cotillas CD	6	−2	7
15	Balsicas Atlético	6	−5	6
16	Bullas Deportivo	6	−2	5
17	Algar	6	−10	3
18	Mazarrón FC	6	−8	1