Santa Cruz v Unión Molinense prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Santa CruzDrawUnión Molinense

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Unión Molinense 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Unión Molinense just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Santa Cruz 34%, draw 28%, Unión Molinense 38%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Santa Cruz v Unión MolinenseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Santa Cruz win34%

Draw28%

Unión Molinense win38%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 13 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Santa Cruz

Unión Molinense

7Days since last match21

Last match: 24 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Santa Cruz	7	+2	12
5	Unión Molinense	6	+5	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · unión molinense winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Unión Molinense a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Santa Cruz v Unión Molinense~~1.20 – 1.28

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 11~~3 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Santa Cruz win	34%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Unión Molinense win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Santa Cruz or draw	62%	–	–
Santa Cruz clean sheet	29%	–	–
Unión Molinense clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.3 10.3 6.8 3.0 1 9.7 13.0 7.9 3.4 2 6.1 7.5 4.7 2.0 3 2.5 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Santa Cruz down, Unión Molinense across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,529 Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.9% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Santa Cruz at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Unión Molinense away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Santa Cruz, 1.28 for Unión Molinense. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~UNI 2–0 SAN · SAN 0–1 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 this season · since 6 Sept

SANTA CRUZ

WDDDWW2–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–2

UNIÓN MOLINENSE

WDLWDW4–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Santomera	7	+12	19
2	San Javier	7	+2	14
3	Santa Cruz	7	+2	12
4	UCAM Murcia II	7	+7	11
5	Unión Molinense	6	+5	11
6	Águilas II	7	+3	11
7	Alcantarilla	7	−1	9
8	Atlético Pulpileño	7	0	8
9	Bala Azul	6	0	8
10	Olímpico Totana	6	0	8
11	Cartagena LU II	6	−1	8
12	Los Garres	7	−1	8
13	SFC Minerva	6	−1	8
14	Cotillas CD	6	−2	7
15	Balsicas Atlético	6	−5	6
16	Algar	7	−9	6
17	Bullas Deportivo	6	−2	5
18	Mazarrón FC	7	−9	1