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Santa Cruz v Atlético Pulpileño

Santa Cruz

3–2Full time

Atlético Pulpileño

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 13:21

Santa Cruz 3–2 Atlético Pulpileño SANTA CRUZ WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Santa Cruz win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.575

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Santa Cruz win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Santa Cruz 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–33–29
1′KICK-OFF Santa Cruz v Atlético Pulpileño
20′Santa Cruz find the net on 20′. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–19–8
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Santa Cruz 1–0 Atlético Pulpileño
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Santa Cruz win: 38% at kick-off, 73% now
20′GOAL DISALLOWED · 20' Santa Cruz
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Santa Cruz win: 38% at kick-off, 35% now
21′We said Santa Cruz at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–19–8
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Santa Cruz 1–0 Atlético Pulpileño
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Santa Cruz win: 38% at kick-off, 73% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 1.9 we expected. 1–0 · 74–19–7
32′We said Santa Cruz at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
45′HALF-TIME Santa Cruz 1–0 Atlético Pulpileño
46′SECOND HALF Santa Cruz 1–0 Atlético Pulpileño
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' Santa Cruz win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
54′We said Santa Cruz at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
67′We said Santa Cruz at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
68′A goal for Atlético Pulpileño on 68′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 18–67–15
68′We said Santa Cruz at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 18–67–15
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Santa Cruz 1–1 Atlético Pulpileño
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Santa Cruz win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Santa Cruz win 85%)
74′We said Santa Cruz at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–74–12
79′Atlético Pulpileño score on 79′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 1–10–89
79′We said Santa Cruz at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–2 · 1–10–89
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Santa Cruz 1–2 Atlético Pulpileño
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Santa Cruz win: 38% at kick-off, 1% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Atlético Pulpileño win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 79%)
80′3 goals already, more than the 1.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 1–9–90
83′Atlético Pulpileño find the net on 82′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
83′⚽ GOAL · 82' Santa Cruz 1–3 Atlético Pulpileño
84′GOAL DISALLOWED · 84' Atlético Pulpileño
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Santa Cruz 2–2 Atlético Pulpileño
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Atlético Pulpileño win 95%)
FTFULL TIME Santa Cruz 3–2 Atlético Pulpileño
FTSanta Cruz 3–2 Atlético Pulpileño · Santa Cruz win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Santa Cruz are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Santa Cruz 38%, draw 33%, Atlético Pulpileño 29%. Over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Santa Cruz v Atlético PulpileñoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Santa Cruz win38%

Draw33%

Atlético Pulpileño win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 10:30

RoundGroup 13 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Santa Cruz

Atlético Pulpileño

14Days since last match14

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Santa Cruz	6	+1	9
8	Atlético Pulpileño	6	+1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · santa cruz winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Santa Cruz a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Santa Cruz v Atlético Pulpileño~~1.03 – 0.86

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 8~~4 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Santa Cruz win	38%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
Atlético Pulpileño win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	29%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	56%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
Santa Cruz or draw	71%	–	–
Santa Cruz clean sheet	43%	–	–
Atlético Pulpileño clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.2%

0123450 16.2 12.5 5.6 1 15.0 13.5 5.6 2 8.0 6.7 2.9 3 2.8 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Santa Cruz down, Atlético Pulpileño across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,524 Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Santa Cruz at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Atlético Pulpileño away: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Santa Cruz, 0.86 for Atlético Pulpileño. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ATL 1–0 SAN · SAN 0–0 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 this season · since 5 Sept

SANTA CRUZ

LWDDDW2–3 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

ATLÉTICO PULPILEÑO

WDDWLL2–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Santomera	6	+8	16
2	San Javier	6	+6	14
3	Unión Molinense	6	+5	11
4	Santa Cruz	6	+1	9
5	Alcantarilla	6	0	9
6	UCAM Murcia II	6	+6	8
7	Águilas II	6	+2	8
8	Atlético Pulpileño	6	+1	8
9	Bala Azul	6	0	8
10	Olímpico Totana	6	0	8
11	Los Garres	6	0	8
12	Cartagena LU II	6	−1	8
13	SFC Minerva	6	−1	8
14	Cotillas CD	6	−2	7
15	Balsicas Atlético	6	−5	6
16	Bullas Deportivo	6	−2	5
17	Algar	6	−10	3
18	Mazarrón FC	6	−8	1