Mazarrón FC v Los Garres prediction · Tercera División RFEF

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Mazarrón FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mazarrón FC 53%, draw 25%, Los Garres 22%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Mazarrón FC v Los GarresBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Mazarrón FC win53%

Draw25%

Los Garres win22%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 13 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mazarrón FC

Los Garres

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Los Garres	6	0	8
18	Mazarrón FC	6	−8	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mazarrón fc winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Mazarrón FC a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mazarrón FC v Los Garres~~1.66 – 0.93

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 this season · since 6 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 1 v 8~~18 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mazarrón FC win	53%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Los Garres win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Mazarrón FC or draw	78%	–	–
Mazarrón FC clean sheet	40%	–	–
Los Garres clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.0%

0123450 8.7 6.9 3.5 1 12.0 11.6 5.3 2 10.0 8.8 4.1 3 5.6 4.9 2.2 4 2.6 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mazarrón FC down, Los Garres across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,524 Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mazarrón FC at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Los Garres away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Mazarrón FC, 0.93 for Los Garres. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LOS 0–2 MAZ · MAZ 1–0 LOS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 this season · since 6 Sept

MAZARRÓN FC

LLDLLL1–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 1–5

LOS GARRES

DDWLLW1–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Santomera	6	+8	16
2	San Javier	6	+6	14
3	Unión Molinense	6	+5	11
4	Santa Cruz	6	+1	9
5	Alcantarilla	6	0	9
6	UCAM Murcia II	6	+6	8
7	Águilas II	6	+2	8
8	Atlético Pulpileño	6	+1	8
9	Bala Azul	6	0	8
10	Olímpico Totana	6	0	8
11	Los Garres	6	0	8
12	Cartagena LU II	6	−1	8
13	SFC Minerva	6	−1	8
14	Cotillas CD	6	−2	7
15	Balsicas Atlético	6	−5	6
16	Bullas Deportivo	6	−2	5
17	Algar	6	−10	3
18	Mazarrón FC	6	−8	1