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Los Garres v Olímpico Totana

Los Garres

2–1Full time

Olímpico Totana

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Los Garres 2–1 Olímpico Totana OLÍMPICO TOTANA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Olímpico Totana win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.873

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Olímpico Totana win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Olímpico Totana was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 24–29–47
1′KICK-OFF Los Garres v Olímpico Totana
2′Much as we predicted: Olímpico Totana was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 24–30–46
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Los Garres 1–0 Olímpico Totana
22′Los Garres find the net on 13′. 1–0. 1–0 · 58–26–16
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Olímpico Totana win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Los Garres win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Olímpico Totana win 16%)
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Olímpico Totana win: 46% at kick-off, 46% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Olímpico Totana win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Los Garres win 24%)
23′Los Garres find the net on 13′. 1–0. 1–0 · 58–26–16
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Olímpico Totana win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Los Garres win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Olímpico Totana win 16%)
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Los Garres 1–1 Olímpico Totana
32′🟥 RED CARD · 31' Los Garres
40′PENALTY MISSED · 39' Olímpico Totana
44′A goal for Olímpico Totana on 39′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 65–25–10
45′A goal for Olímpico Totana on 39′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 65–25–10
45′⚽ GOAL · 48' Los Garres 2–0 Olímpico Totana
45′PENALTY MISSED · 48' Los Garres
45′HALF-TIME Los Garres 2–0 Olímpico Totana
46′SECOND HALF Los Garres 2–0 Olímpico Totana
47′Los Garres find the net on 45′. 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Olímpico Totana win: 46% at kick-off, 2% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Olímpico Totana win: 46% at kick-off, 10% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Olímpico Totana win: 46% at kick-off, 2% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Olímpico Totana win: 46% at kick-off, 10% now
49′Los Garres find the net on 45′. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–7–2
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Olímpico Totana win: 46% at kick-off, 2% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Olímpico Totana win: 46% at kick-off, 10% now
62′⚽ GOAL · 13' Los Garres 2–0 Olímpico Totana
62′🟥 RED CARD · 31' Los Garres
62′PENALTY MISSED · 39' Olímpico Totana
62′⚽ GOAL · 48' Los Garres 2–0 Olímpico Totana
62′PENALTY MISSED · 48' Los Garres
65′⚽ GOAL · 13' Los Garres 2–0 Olímpico Totana
65′🟥 RED CARD · 31' Los Garres
65′PENALTY MISSED · 39' Olímpico Totana
65′⚽ GOAL · 48' Los Garres 2–0 Olímpico Totana
65′PENALTY MISSED · 48' Los Garres
69′A red card for Los Garres on 31′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–0 · 97–3–0
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Los Garres 2–1 Olímpico Totana
85′A goal for Olímpico Totana on 72′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 94–6–0
90′A goal for Olímpico Totana on 72′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Los Garres 2–1 Olímpico Totana
FTLos Garres 2–1 Olímpico Totana · Olímpico Totana win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Los Garres win24%

Draw30%

Olímpico Totana win46%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Los Garres

Olímpico Totana

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Olímpico Totana	5	+1	8
15	Los Garres	5	−1	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · olímpico totana winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Olímpico Totana a 46% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.3, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Los Garres win	24%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Olímpico Totana win	46%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Los Garres or draw	54%	–	–
Los Garres clean sheet	30%	–	–
Olímpico Totana clean sheet	45%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.1%

0123450 13.7 15.1 9.7 4.3 1 9.8 12.7 7.5 3.2 2 4.4 5.1 3.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Los Garres down, Olímpico Totana across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,519 Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.0% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Los Garres at home: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Olímpico Totana away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.82 goals for Los Garres, 1.26 for Olímpico Totana. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

LOS GARRES

LDDWLL1–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

OLÍMPICO TOTANA

LDLWDW1–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Santomera	6	+8	16
2	Unión Molinense	6	+5	11
3	San Javier	5	+3	11
4	Santa Cruz	6	+1	9
5	Alcantarilla	6	0	9
6	Atlético Pulpileño	6	+1	8
7	Olímpico Totana	5	+1	8
8	SFC Minerva	5	+1	8
9	Bala Azul	6	0	8
10	Cartagena LU II	6	−1	8
11	Cotillas CD	6	−2	7
12	UCAM Murcia II	5	+2	5
13	Bullas Deportivo	5	+1	5
14	Águilas II	5	0	5
15	Los Garres	5	−1	5
16	Algar	5	−7	3
17	Balsicas Atlético	5	−8	3
18	Mazarrón FC	5	−4	1