Los Garres v Águilas II prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:17

Los Garres 1–2 Águilas II ÁGUILAS II WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Águilas II win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.468

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Águilas II win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Águilas II was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 27–28–44
1′KICK-OFF Los Garres v Águilas II
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Águilas II win 38%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Águilas II win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′HALF-TIME Los Garres 0–0 Águilas II
46′SECOND HALF Los Garres 0–0 Águilas II
50′We said Águilas II at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 22–46–32
57′We said Águilas II at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 20–51–29
66′We said Águilas II at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 17–59–24
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Águilas II win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
67′Águilas II find the net on 67′. 0–1. 0–1 · 2–14–84
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Los Garres 0–1 Águilas II
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Águilas II win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Águilas II win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 60%)
68′We published Águilas II at 44%. Our model now makes it 84%. 0–1 · 2–14–84
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Águilas II win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
71′We published Águilas II at 44%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
78′We published Águilas II at 44%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Águilas II win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
85′We published Águilas II at 44%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
96′Águilas II score on 90′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–1–99
96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Los Garres 1–2 Águilas II
97′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–1–99
FTFULL TIME Los Garres 1–2 Águilas II
FTLos Garres 1–2 Águilas II · Águilas II win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Águilas II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Los Garres 28%, draw 28%, Águilas II 44%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Los Garres v Águilas IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 03:48 · locked at kick-off

Los Garres win28%

Draw28%

Águilas II win44%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:30

RoundGroup 13 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Los Garres

Águilas II

13Days since last match13

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Águilas II	6	+2	8
11	Los Garres	6	0	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · águilas ii winFirst published 18 Oct 03:48 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Águilas II a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Los Garres v Águilas II~~0.98 – 1.34

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D5 L0

~~Table places · points 8 v 8~~11 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Los Garres win	28%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Águilas II win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Los Garres or draw	56%	–	–
Los Garres clean sheet	27%	–	–
Águilas II clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 10.9 12.6 8.7 4.0 1 9.3 12.8 8.0 3.7 2 4.9 6.1 4.0 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Los Garres down, Águilas II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,524 Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Los Garres at home: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Águilas II away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for Los Garres, 1.34 for Águilas II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 this season · since 6 Sept

LOS GARRES

DDWLLW1–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

ÁGUILAS II

DDDDDW1–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Santomera	6	+8	16
2	San Javier	6	+6	14
3	Santa Cruz	7	+2	12
4	UCAM Murcia II	7	+7	11
5	Unión Molinense	6	+5	11
6	Alcantarilla	7	−1	9
7	Águilas II	6	+2	8
8	Atlético Pulpileño	7	0	8
9	Bala Azul	6	0	8
10	Olímpico Totana	6	0	8
11	Los Garres	6	0	8
12	Cartagena LU II	6	−1	8
13	SFC Minerva	6	−1	8
14	Cotillas CD	6	−2	7
15	Balsicas Atlético	6	−5	6
16	Bullas Deportivo	6	−2	5
17	Algar	6	−10	3
18	Mazarrón FC	6	−8	1