Cotillas CD v Unión Molinense prediction · Tercera División RFEF

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Unión Molinense are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cotillas CD 29%, draw 26%, Unión Molinense 45%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Cotillas CD v Unión MolinenseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Cotillas CD win29%

Draw26%

Unión Molinense win45%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:30

RoundGroup 13 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cotillas CD

Unión Molinense

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Unión Molinense	6	+5	11
14	Cotillas CD	6	−2	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · unión molinense winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Unión Molinense a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cotillas CD v Unión Molinense~~1.15 – 1.50

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 11~~14 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cotillas CD win	29%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Unión Molinense win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Cotillas CD or draw	55%	–	–
Cotillas CD clean sheet	23%	–	–
Unión Molinense clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.0 10.2 7.9 4.0 1 7.8 12.3 8.7 4.4 2 4.7 6.8 5.0 2.5 3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cotillas CD down, Unión Molinense across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,524 Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Cotillas CD at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 3). Unión Molinense away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Cotillas CD, 1.50 for Unión Molinense. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 this season · since 6 Sept

COTILLAS CD

WDLLWL2–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–1

UNIÓN MOLINENSE

WDLWDW4–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Santomera	6	+8	16
2	San Javier	6	+6	14
3	Unión Molinense	6	+5	11
4	Santa Cruz	6	+1	9
5	Alcantarilla	6	0	9
6	UCAM Murcia II	6	+6	8
7	Águilas II	6	+2	8
8	Atlético Pulpileño	6	+1	8
9	Bala Azul	6	0	8
10	Olímpico Totana	6	0	8
11	Los Garres	6	0	8
12	Cartagena LU II	6	−1	8
13	SFC Minerva	6	−1	8
14	Cotillas CD	6	−2	7
15	Balsicas Atlético	6	−5	6
16	Bullas Deportivo	6	−2	5
17	Algar	6	−10	3
18	Mazarrón FC	6	−8	1