Cartagena LU II v Santomera prediction · Tercera División RFEF

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Cartagena LU II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cartagena LU II 43%, draw 25%, Santomera 33%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Cartagena LU II v SantomeraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Cartagena LU II win43%

Draw25%

Santomera win33%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 13 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cartagena LU II

Santomera

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cartagena lu ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Cartagena LU II a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cartagena LU II v Santomera~~1.64 – 1.40

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 8 v 16~~12 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cartagena LU II win	43%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Santomera win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Cartagena LU II or draw	67%	–	–
Cartagena LU II clean sheet	25%	–	–
Santomera clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.6 6.4 4.8 2.2 1 7.6 11.2 7.5 3.5 2 6.4 8.7 6.0 2.8 3 3.5 4.8 3.3 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cartagena LU II down, Santomera across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,524 Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cartagena LU II at home: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Santomera away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Cartagena LU II, 1.40 for Santomera. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SAN 2–1 CAR · CAR 4–4 SAN · SAN 2–1 CAR · CAR 3–3 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 this season · since 5 Sept

CARTAGENA LU II

LDDWLW2–4 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 3–2

SANTOMERA

WDWWWW2–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Santomera	6	+8	16
2	San Javier	6	+6	14
3	Unión Molinense	6	+5	11
4	Santa Cruz	6	+1	9
5	Alcantarilla	6	0	9
6	UCAM Murcia II	6	+6	8
7	Águilas II	6	+2	8
8	Atlético Pulpileño	6	+1	8
9	Bala Azul	6	0	8
10	Olímpico Totana	6	0	8
11	Los Garres	6	0	8
12	Cartagena LU II	6	−1	8
13	SFC Minerva	6	−1	8
14	Cotillas CD	6	−2	7
15	Balsicas Atlético	6	−5	6
16	Bullas Deportivo	6	−2	5
17	Algar	6	−10	3
18	Mazarrón FC	6	−8	1