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Bullas Deportivo v Cartagena LU II

Bullas Deportivo

2–3Full time

Cartagena LU II

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Bullas Deportivo 2–3 Cartagena LU II BULLAS DEPORTIVO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bullas Deportivo win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.804

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bullas Deportivo win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bullas Deportivo 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–28
5′Little has changed for our model: Bullas Deportivo 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–29–27
44′41′ and it is 0–1: Cartagena LU II have scored. 0–1 · 10–25–66
45′41′ and it is 0–1: Cartagena LU II have scored. 0–1 · 10–24–66
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Bullas Deportivo win: 44% at kick-off, 10% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Bullas Deportivo win: 44% at kick-off, 39% now
45′HALF-TIME Bullas Deportivo 0–1 Cartagena LU II
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Cartagena LU II win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Bullas Deportivo win 10%)
46′SECOND HALF Bullas Deportivo 0–1 Cartagena LU II
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Bullas Deportivo 0–2 Cartagena LU II
78′⚽ GOAL · 41' Bullas Deportivo 0–2 Cartagena LU II
78′⚽ GOAL · 60' Bullas Deportivo 0–2 Cartagena LU II
81′⚽ GOAL · 41' Bullas Deportivo 0–2 Cartagena LU II
81′⚽ GOAL · 60' Bullas Deportivo 0–2 Cartagena LU II
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Bullas Deportivo 0–3 Cartagena LU II
FTFULL TIME Bullas Deportivo 2–3 Cartagena LU II
FTBullas Deportivo 2–3 Cartagena LU II · Bullas Deportivo win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Bullas Deportivo win44%

Draw29%

Cartagena LU II win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bullas deportivo winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Bullas Deportivo a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bullas Deportivo win	44%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Cartagena LU II win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Bullas Deportivo or draw	73%	–	–
Bullas Deportivo clean sheet	38%	–	–
Cartagena LU II clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 11.2 9.4 4.9 1 12.8 13.1 6.1 2.1 2 8.7 8.2 4.0 3 3.9 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bullas Deportivo down, Cartagena LU II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,514 Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.5% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Bullas Deportivo at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 2). Cartagena LU II away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Bullas Deportivo, 0.97 for Cartagena LU II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

BULLAS DEPORTIVO

DWDL1–1 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 1–2

CARTAGENA LU II

LLDDWL0–1 · 2–4 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Santomera	5	+5	13
2	San Javier	5	+3	11
3	Alcantarilla	5	+3	9
4	Unión Molinense	5	+2	8
5	Atlético Pulpileño	5	+2	8
6	Olímpico Totana	5	+1	8
7	SFC Minerva	5	+1	8
8	Cotillas CD	5	−1	7
9	Santa Cruz	5	0	6
10	UCAM Murcia II	5	+2	5
11	Bullas Deportivo	4	+2	5
12	Águilas II	5	0	5
13	Bala Azul	5	−1	5
14	Los Garres	5	−1	5
15	Cartagena LU II	5	−2	5
16	Balsicas Atlético	4	−5	3
17	Algar	5	−7	3
18	Mazarrón FC	5	−4	1