Balsicas Atlético v Cartagena LU II prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Balsicas AtléticoDrawCartagena LU II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Balsicas Atlético 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Balsicas Atlético just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Balsicas Atlético 38%, draw 28%, Cartagena LU II 34%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Balsicas Atlético v Cartagena LU IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Balsicas Atlético win38%

Draw28%

Cartagena LU II win34%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 13 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Balsicas Atlético

Cartagena LU II

11Days since last match15

Last match: 14 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Cartagena LU II	6	−1	8
15	Balsicas Atlético	6	−5	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · balsicas atlético winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Balsicas Atlético a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Balsicas Atlético v Cartagena LU II~~1.29 – 1.21

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 8~~15 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Balsicas Atlético win	38%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Cartagena LU II win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Balsicas Atlético or draw	66%	–	–
Balsicas Atlético clean sheet	30%	–	–
Cartagena LU II clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.1 9.6 6.1 2.5 1 10.2 13.0 7.5 3.1 2 6.8 8.0 4.8 3 3.0 3.5 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Balsicas Atlético down, Cartagena LU II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,524 Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Balsicas Atlético at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Cartagena LU II away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Balsicas Atlético, 1.21 for Cartagena LU II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CAR 1–1 BAL · BAL 1–2 CAR · CAR 1–2 BAL · BAL 0–1 CAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 this season · since 6 Sept

BALSICAS ATLÉTICO

LLLWLW0–1 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 4–1

CARTAGENA LU II

LDDWLW2–4 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Santomera	6	+8	16
2	San Javier	6	+6	14
3	Santa Cruz	7	+2	12
4	UCAM Murcia II	7	+7	11
5	Unión Molinense	6	+5	11
6	Alcantarilla	7	−1	9
7	Águilas II	6	+2	8
8	Atlético Pulpileño	7	0	8
9	Bala Azul	6	0	8
10	Olímpico Totana	6	0	8
11	Los Garres	6	0	8
12	Cartagena LU II	6	−1	8
13	SFC Minerva	6	−1	8
14	Cotillas CD	6	−2	7
15	Balsicas Atlético	6	−5	6
16	Bullas Deportivo	6	−2	5
17	Algar	6	−10	3
18	Mazarrón FC	6	−8	1