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Balsicas Atlético v Bullas Deportivo

Balsicas Atlético

4–1Full time

Bullas Deportivo

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · WED 14 OCT

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 22:18

Balsicas Atlético 4–1 Bullas Deportivo BALSICAS ATLÉTICO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Balsicas Atlético win~~36%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.614

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.721

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Balsicas Atlético win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Balsicas Atlético 36% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–27–36
1′KICK-OFF Balsicas Atlético v Bullas Deportivo
28′Balsicas Atlético find the net on 28′. 1–0. 1–0 · 67–22–11
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Balsicas Atlético 1–0 Bullas Deportivo
29′We said Balsicas Atlético at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 1–0 · 67–22–11
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Balsicas Atlético win: 36% at kick-off, 67% now
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 67–22–11
37′A goal for Balsicas Atlético on 37′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 90–7–2
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Balsicas Atlético 2–0 Bullas Deportivo
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Balsicas Atlético win: 36% at kick-off, 90% now
38′We said Balsicas Atlético at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
42′42′ and it is 3–0: Balsicas Atlético have scored. 3–0 · 98–1–0
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Balsicas Atlético 3–0 Bullas Deportivo
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Balsicas Atlético win: 36% at kick-off, 98% now
43′We said Balsicas Atlético at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–0 · 98–1–0
43′⚽ GOAL · 28' Balsicas Atlético 4–0 Bullas Deportivo
44′Balsicas Atlético find the net on 43′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
45′We said Balsicas Atlético at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
45′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
45′HALF-TIME Balsicas Atlético 4–0 Bullas Deportivo
46′SECOND HALF Balsicas Atlético 4–0 Bullas Deportivo
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Balsicas Atlético 4–1 Bullas Deportivo
82′A goal for Bullas Deportivo on 81′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
83′5 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
90′90′ and it is 4–2: Bullas Deportivo have scored. 4–2 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Balsicas Atlético 4–2 Bullas Deportivo
90′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90' Bullas Deportivo
FTFULL TIME Balsicas Atlético 4–1 Bullas Deportivo
FTBalsicas Atlético 4–1 Bullas Deportivo · Balsicas Atlético win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Balsicas Atlético v Bullas DeportivoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 18:47 · locked at kick-off

Balsicas Atlético win36%

Draw28%

Bullas Deportivo win36%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 19:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Balsicas Atlético

Bullas Deportivo

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Bullas Deportivo	5	1	5
16	Balsicas Atlético	5	-8	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · balsicas atlético winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 14 Oct 18:47 · locked at kick-off

36% The market31%

Us36%

~~Market~~31%

We make Balsicas Atlético a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Balsicas Atlético v Bullas Deportivo~~1.27 – 1.26

~~Last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 5~~16 v 15

~~The market · Balsicas Atlético win~~31% · ours 36%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · balsicas atlético win The market, margin stripped

Published at 35%, 36% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Balsicas Atlético win	36%	31%	+5
Draw	28%	29%	−2
Bullas Deportivo win	36%	40%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	46%	43%	+3
Both teams to score	51%	49%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	72%	67%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	25%	23%	+2
Balsicas Atlético or draw	64%	60%	+4
Balsicas Atlético clean sheet	29%	–	–
Bullas Deportivo clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.0 9.7 6.4 2.8 1 9.7 12.9 7.7 3.3 2 6.4 7.7 4.8 2.1 3 2.8 3.3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Balsicas Atlético down, Bullas Deportivo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,523 Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.9% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Balsicas Atlético at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Bullas Deportivo away: 1.50 scored, 0.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Balsicas Atlético, 1.26 for Bullas Deportivo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

BALSICAS ATLÉTICO

WLLLWL3–1 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–3

BULLAS DEPORTIVO

DWDLL1–1 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Santomera	6	8	16
2	San Javier	6	6	14
3	Unión Molinense	6	5	11
4	Santa Cruz	6	1	9
5	Alcantarilla	6	0	9
6	UCAM Murcia II	6	6	8
7	Águilas II	6	2	8
8	Atlético Pulpileño	6	1	8
9	Bala Azul	6	0	8
10	Olímpico Totana	6	0	8
11	Los Garres	6	0	8
12	Cartagena LU II	6	-1	8
13	SFC Minerva	6	-1	8
14	Cotillas CD	6	-2	7
15	Bullas Deportivo	5	1	5
16	Balsicas Atlético	5	-8	3
17	Algar	6	-10	3
18	Mazarrón FC	6	-8	1