Bala Azul v Santa Cruz prediction · Tercera División RFEF

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Bala Azul are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bala Azul 42%, draw 30%, Santa Cruz 29%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Bala Azul v Santa CruzBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Bala Azul win42%

Draw30%

Santa Cruz win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 13 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bala Azul

Santa Cruz

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Santa Cruz	6	+1	9
9	Bala Azul	6	0	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bala azul winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Bala Azul a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bala Azul v Santa Cruz~~1.23 – 0.97

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 9~~9 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bala Azul win	42%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Santa Cruz win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Bala Azul or draw	71%	–	–
Bala Azul clean sheet	39%	–	–
Santa Cruz clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 12.1 10.3 5.2 1 13.1 13.4 6.2 2.1 2 8.3 7.8 3.8 3 3.5 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bala Azul down, Santa Cruz across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,524 Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bala Azul at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Santa Cruz away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Bala Azul, 0.97 for Santa Cruz. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BAL 0–1 SAN · SAN 1–0 BAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 this season · since 6 Sept

BALA AZUL

DWDLLW2–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 3–2

SANTA CRUZ

LWDDDW2–3 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Santomera	6	+8	16
2	San Javier	6	+6	14
3	Unión Molinense	6	+5	11
4	Santa Cruz	6	+1	9
5	Alcantarilla	6	0	9
6	UCAM Murcia II	6	+6	8
7	Águilas II	6	+2	8
8	Atlético Pulpileño	6	+1	8
9	Bala Azul	6	0	8
10	Olímpico Totana	6	0	8
11	Los Garres	6	0	8
12	Cartagena LU II	6	−1	8
13	SFC Minerva	6	−1	8
14	Cotillas CD	6	−2	7
15	Balsicas Atlético	6	−5	6
16	Bullas Deportivo	6	−2	5
17	Algar	6	−10	3
18	Mazarrón FC	6	−8	1