Atlético Pulpileño v Balsicas Atlético prediction · Tercera División RFEF

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Atlético Pulpileño are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlético Pulpileño 50%, draw 29%, Balsicas Atlético 21%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Atlético Pulpileño v Balsicas AtléticoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Atlético Pulpileño win50%

Draw29%

Balsicas Atlético win21%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 10:30

RoundGroup 13 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlético Pulpileño

Balsicas Atlético

8Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

Last match: 14 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Atlético Pulpileño	6	+1	8
15	Balsicas Atlético	6	−5	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atlético pulpileño winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:58 · postponed, not graded

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Atlético Pulpileño a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atlético Pulpileño v Balsicas Atlético~~1.35 – 0.76

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 8 v 6~~8 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atlético Pulpileño win

Published at 51%, 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlético Pulpileño win	50%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Balsicas Atlético win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Atlético Pulpileño or draw	79%	–	–
Atlético Pulpileño clean sheet	47%	–	–
Balsicas Atlético clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.9%

0123450 13.1 8.8 3.5 1 15.9 12.6 4.6 2 11.0 8.1 3.1 3 5.0 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlético Pulpileño down, Balsicas Atlético across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,524 Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atlético Pulpileño at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Balsicas Atlético away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Atlético Pulpileño, 0.76 for Balsicas Atlético. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ATL 1–0 BAL · BAL 2–1 ATL · ATL 0–0 BAL · BAL 0–3 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 this season · since 5 Sept

ATLÉTICO PULPILEÑO

WDDWLL2–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 2–3

BALSICAS ATLÉTICO

LLLWLW0–1 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Santomera	6	+8	16
2	San Javier	6	+6	14
3	Unión Molinense	6	+5	11
4	Santa Cruz	6	+1	9
5	Alcantarilla	6	0	9
6	UCAM Murcia II	6	+6	8
7	Águilas II	6	+2	8
8	Atlético Pulpileño	6	+1	8
9	Bala Azul	6	0	8
10	Olímpico Totana	6	0	8
11	Los Garres	6	0	8
12	Cartagena LU II	6	−1	8
13	SFC Minerva	6	−1	8
14	Cotillas CD	6	−2	7
15	Balsicas Atlético	6	−5	6
16	Bullas Deportivo	6	−2	5
17	Algar	6	−10	3
18	Mazarrón FC	6	−8	1