Home › Football › Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 › Atlético Pulpileño v Bala Azul

Atlético Pulpileño v Bala Azul

Atlético Pulpileño

2–3Full time

Bala Azul

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Atlético Pulpileño 2–3 Bala Azul ATLÉTICO PULPILEÑO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atlético Pulpileño win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.831

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atlético Pulpileño win at 40%.
2′Much as we predicted: Atlético Pulpileño was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–34–26
44′A goal for Bala Azul on 35′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–23–70
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Atlético Pulpileño win: 40% at kick-off, 36% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Atlético Pulpileño win: 40% at kick-off, 7% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Atlético Pulpileño win: 40% at kick-off, 36% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Atlético Pulpileño win: 40% at kick-off, 7% now
45′HALF-TIME Atlético Pulpileño 0–1 Bala Azul
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Bala Azul win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Atlético Pulpileño win 7%)
46′SECOND HALF Atlético Pulpileño 0–1 Bala Azul
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Atlético Pulpileño win: 40% at kick-off, 7% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Bala Azul win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Atlético Pulpileño win 7%)
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Atlético Pulpileño win: 40% at kick-off, 7% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Bala Azul win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Atlético Pulpileño win 7%)
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Atlético Pulpileño win: 40% at kick-off, 7% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Bala Azul win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Atlético Pulpileño win 7%)
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Atlético Pulpileño win: 40% at kick-off, 7% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Bala Azul win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Atlético Pulpileño win 7%)
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Atlético Pulpileño win: 40% at kick-off, 7% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Bala Azul win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Atlético Pulpileño win 7%)
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Atlético Pulpileño 1–1 Bala Azul
72′PENALTY MISSED · 71' Atlético Pulpileño
72′⚽ GOAL · 71' Atlético Pulpileño 2–1 Bala Azul
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Atlético Pulpileño 2–2 Bala Azul
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' Atlético Pulpileño 2–3 Bala Azul
FTFULL TIME Atlético Pulpileño 2–3 Bala Azul
FTAtlético Pulpileño 2–3 Bala Azul · Atlético Pulpileño win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Atlético Pulpileño win40%

Draw35%

Bala Azul win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atlético pulpileño winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Atlético Pulpileño a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–0.7, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 19%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlético Pulpileño win	40%	–	–
Draw	35%	–	–
Bala Azul win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	25%	–	–
Both teams to score	32%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	51%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	10%	–	–
Atlético Pulpileño or draw	74%	–	–
Atlético Pulpileño clean sheet	49%	–	–
Bala Azul clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 19.2%

0123450 19.2 12.6 4.8 1 17.1 13.1 4.6 2 8.7 6.2 2.3 3 2.9 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlético Pulpileño down, Bala Azul across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,514 Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.5% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 1.25 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atlético Pulpileño at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Bala Azul away: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for Atlético Pulpileño, 0.72 for Bala Azul. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.25

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ATL 1–1 BAL · BAL 0–0 ATL · BAL 1–1 ATL · ATL 1–0 BAL

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

ATLÉTICO PULPILEÑO

LWDDWL0–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–3

BALA AZUL

LDWDLL2–4 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Santomera	5	+5	13
2	San Javier	5	+3	11
3	Alcantarilla	5	+3	9
4	Unión Molinense	5	+2	8
5	Atlético Pulpileño	5	+2	8
6	Olímpico Totana	5	+1	8
7	SFC Minerva	5	+1	8
8	Cotillas CD	5	−1	7
9	Santa Cruz	5	0	6
10	UCAM Murcia II	5	+2	5
11	Bullas Deportivo	4	+2	5
12	Águilas II	5	0	5
13	Bala Azul	5	−1	5
14	Los Garres	5	−1	5
15	Cartagena LU II	5	−2	5
16	Balsicas Atlético	4	−5	3
17	Algar	5	−7	3
18	Mazarrón FC	5	−4	1