Algar v San Javier prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Algar 0–3 San Javier SAN JAVIER WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said San Javier win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.359

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said San Javier win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: San Javier was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 24–24–52
1′KICK-OFF Algar v San Javier
2′Much as we predicted: San Javier was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 24–24–52
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Algar 0–1 San Javier
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Algar 0–2 San Javier
45′HALF-TIME Algar 0–2 San Javier
45′⚽ GOAL · 35' Algar 0–2 San Javier
45′⚽ GOAL · 41' Algar 0–2 San Javier
46′SECOND HALF Algar 0–2 San Javier
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Algar 0–3 San Javier
FTFULL TIME Algar 0–3 San Javier
FTAlgar 0–3 San Javier · San Javier win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Algar win24%

Draw25%

San Javier win51%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Algar

San Javier

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	San Javier	5	+3	11
16	Algar	5	−7	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · san javier winPublished 11 Oct 16:05

51% The market–

Us51%

We make San Javier a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Algar win	24%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
San Javier win	51%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Algar or draw	49%	–	–
Algar clean sheet	20%	–	–
San Javier clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 7.6 10.6 9.0 5.1 2.3 1 6.7 11.6 8.9 5.0 2.3 2 3.8 5.8 4.7 2.6 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Algar down, San Javier across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,519 Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.0% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Algar at home: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). San Javier away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.05 goals for Algar, 1.69 for San Javier. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

ALGAR

WLLLLW4–3 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–1

SAN JAVIER

WDWDW3–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Santomera	6	+8	16
2	Unión Molinense	6	+5	11
3	San Javier	5	+3	11
4	Santa Cruz	6	+1	9
5	Alcantarilla	6	0	9
6	Atlético Pulpileño	6	+1	8
7	Olímpico Totana	5	+1	8
8	SFC Minerva	5	+1	8
9	Bala Azul	6	0	8
10	Cartagena LU II	6	−1	8
11	Cotillas CD	6	−2	7
12	UCAM Murcia II	5	+2	5
13	Bullas Deportivo	5	+1	5
14	Águilas II	5	0	5
15	Los Garres	5	−1	5
16	Algar	5	−7	3
17	Balsicas Atlético	5	−8	3
18	Mazarrón FC	5	−4	1