Algar v Mazarrón FC prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:17

Algar 2–1 Mazarrón FC MAZARRÓN FC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mazarrón FC win~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.961

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mazarrón FC win at 55%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Mazarrón FC 55% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 22–24–54
1′KICK-OFF Algar v Mazarrón FC
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Mazarrón FC win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
44′We said Mazarrón FC at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 21–36–43
45′HALF-TIME Algar 0–0 Mazarrón FC
46′Algar find the net on 46′. 2–0. 2–0 · 84–11–5
46′⚽ GOAL · 45' Algar 2–0 Mazarrón FC
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Algar 2–0 Mazarrón FC
46′SECOND HALF Algar 2–0 Mazarrón FC
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Mazarrón FC win: 55% at kick-off, 5% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Algar win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Mazarrón FC win 43%)
52′We said Mazarrón FC at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 86–10–4
53′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 2–0 · 87–10–3
FTFULL TIME Algar 2–1 Mazarrón FC
FTAlgar 2–1 Mazarrón FC · Mazarrón FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mazarrón FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Algar 22%, draw 23%, Mazarrón FC 55%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Algar v Mazarrón FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Algar win22%

Draw23%

Mazarrón FC win55%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:30

RoundGroup 13 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Algar

Mazarrón FC

13Days since last match13

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Algar	6	−10	3
18	Mazarrón FC	6	−8	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mazarrón fc winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Mazarrón FC a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Algar v Mazarrón FC~~1.05 – 1.86

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 3 v 1~~17 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Algar win	22%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Mazarrón FC win	55%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Algar or draw	45%	–	–
Algar clean sheet	17%	–	–
Mazarrón FC clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 6.5 9.8 9.0 5.6 2.8 1 5.8 10.9 9.1 5.5 2.7 2 3.3 5.6 4.8 2.9 3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Algar down, Mazarrón FC across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,524 Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

Algar at home: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Mazarrón FC away: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.05 goals for Algar, 1.86 for Mazarrón FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 this season · since 5 Sept

ALGAR

LLLLWL0–2 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–3

MAZARRÓN FC

LLDLLL1–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 1–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Santomera	6	+8	16
2	San Javier	6	+6	14
3	Santa Cruz	7	+2	12
4	UCAM Murcia II	7	+7	11
5	Unión Molinense	6	+5	11
6	Alcantarilla	7	−1	9
7	Águilas II	6	+2	8
8	Atlético Pulpileño	7	0	8
9	Bala Azul	6	0	8
10	Olímpico Totana	6	0	8
11	Los Garres	6	0	8
12	Cartagena LU II	6	−1	8
13	SFC Minerva	6	−1	8
14	Cotillas CD	6	−2	7
15	Balsicas Atlético	6	−5	6
16	Bullas Deportivo	6	−2	5
17	Algar	6	−10	3
18	Mazarrón FC	6	−8	1