Alcantarilla v SFC Minerva prediction · Tercera División RFEF

AI match analysis

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Pitchside prediction · postponed

Close to call, with SFC Minerva just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Alcantarilla 33%, draw 33%, SFC Minerva 34%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Alcantarilla v SFC MinervaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Alcantarilla win33%

Draw33%

SFC Minerva win34%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 13 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alcantarilla

SFC Minerva

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Alcantarilla	6	0	9
13	SFC Minerva	6	−1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sfc minerva winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:12 · postponed, not graded

34% The market–

Us34%

We make SFC Minerva a 34% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alcantarilla v SFC Minerva~~0.91 – 0.93

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 8~~5 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · SFC Minerva win

Published at 35%, 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alcantarilla win	33%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
SFC Minerva win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	28%	–	–
Both teams to score	36%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	55%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	12%	–	–
Alcantarilla or draw	66%	–	–
Alcantarilla clean sheet	40%	–	–
SFC Minerva clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.9%

0123450 16.9 14.1 6.8 2.2 1 13.8 13.5 6.0 2 6.6 6.0 2.8 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alcantarilla down, SFC Minerva across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,524 Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alcantarilla at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). SFC Minerva away: 0.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.91 goals for Alcantarilla, 0.93 for SFC Minerva. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SFC 0–1 ALC · ALC 0–2 SFC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 this season · since 6 Sept

ALCANTARILLA

DDWWDL1–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–3

SFC MINERVA

WDLDWL1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Santomera	6	+8	16
2	San Javier	6	+6	14
3	Unión Molinense	6	+5	11
4	Santa Cruz	6	+1	9
5	Alcantarilla	6	0	9
6	UCAM Murcia II	6	+6	8
7	Águilas II	6	+2	8
8	Atlético Pulpileño	6	+1	8
9	Bala Azul	6	0	8
10	Olímpico Totana	6	0	8
11	Los Garres	6	0	8
12	Cartagena LU II	6	−1	8
13	SFC Minerva	6	−1	8
14	Cotillas CD	6	−2	7
15	Balsicas Atlético	6	−5	6
16	Bullas Deportivo	6	−2	5
17	Algar	6	−10	3
18	Mazarrón FC	6	−8	1