Villaverde Norte v Unión Sur Yaiza prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 18:31

Villaverde Norte 0–1 Unión Sur Yaiza VILLAVERDE NORTE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Villaverde Norte win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.663

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Villaverde Norte win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Villaverde Norte 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–28–34
1′KICK-OFF Villaverde Norte v Unión Sur Yaiza
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Villaverde Norte win 35%)
45′HALF-TIME Villaverde Norte 0–0 Unión Sur Yaiza
46′SECOND HALF Villaverde Norte 0–0 Unión Sur Yaiza
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Villaverde Norte win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 27–48–25
57′We said Villaverde Norte at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 26–49–24
62′We said Villaverde Norte at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–54–22
71′We said Villaverde Norte at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–64–17
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Villaverde Norte win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
77′We said Villaverde Norte at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–72–13
83′We said Villaverde Norte at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Villaverde Norte win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
90′We said Villaverde Norte at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Villaverde Norte 0–1 Unión Sur Yaiza
FTVillaverde Norte 0–1 Unión Sur Yaiza · Villaverde Norte win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Villaverde Norte just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Villaverde Norte 38%, draw 28%, Unión Sur Yaiza 34%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Villaverde Norte v Unión Sur YaizaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Villaverde Norte win38%

Draw28%

Unión Sur Yaiza win34%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 12 · matchday 1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Villaverde Norte

Unión Sur Yaiza

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Unión Sur Yaiza	6	−1	7
17	Villaverde Norte	6	−8	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · villaverde norte winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 00:21 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Villaverde Norte a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Villaverde Norte v Unión Sur Yaiza~~1.28 – 1.19

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 11 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 2 v 7~~17 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Villaverde Norte win

Published at 39%, 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Villaverde Norte win	38%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Unión Sur Yaiza win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Villaverde Norte or draw	66%	–	–
Villaverde Norte clean sheet	31%	–	–
Unión Sur Yaiza clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 9.5 9.5 6.0 2.4 1 10.2 13.2 7.4 3.0 2 6.9 8.0 4.7 3 3.0 3.5 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Villaverde Norte down, Unión Sur Yaiza across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,490 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Villaverde Norte at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Unión Sur Yaiza away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Villaverde Norte, 1.19 for Unión Sur Yaiza. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 11 Sept

VILLAVERDE NORTE

LDLLLD1–3 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 1–1

UNIÓN SUR YAIZA

LLWLWD0–1 · 2–4 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD San Fernando	6	+14	15
2	Panadería Pulido	6	+6	13
3	Real Unión de Tenerife	6	+5	13
4	Mensajero	6	+2	11
5	Marino	6	+6	10
6	Tenerife C	6	+3	10
7	Los Llanos	6	+3	10
8	San Miguel	6	+2	10
9	Las Palmas III	6	+3	9
10	San Bartolomé	6	+1	9
11	Unión Sur Yaiza	6	−1	7
12	Estrella	6	−3	7
13	Lanzarote	6	−3	6
14	Villa Santa Brígida	6	−4	6
15	Anaza	6	−5	5
16	Laguna de Duero	6	−6	2
17	Villaverde Norte	6	−8	2
18	Playas Sotavento	6	−15	2