Villaverde Norte v Anaza prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Villaverde Norte 1–1 Anaza VILLAVERDE NORTE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Villaverde Norte win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.847

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Villaverde Norte are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Villaverde Norte 46%, draw 26%, Anaza 28%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Villaverde Norte v AnazaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Villaverde Norte win46%

Draw26%

Anaza win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 12 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Villaverde Norte

Anaza

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

Last match: 9 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Anaza	5	−5	4
18	Villaverde Norte	5	−8	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · villaverde norte winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Villaverde Norte a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Villaverde Norte v Anaza~~1.61 – 1.20

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D1 L4 · W1 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 1 v 4~~18 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Villaverde Norte win	46%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Anaza win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Villaverde Norte or draw	72%	–	–
Villaverde Norte clean sheet	31%	–	–
Anaza clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.1 6.9 4.4 1 9.3 11.9 6.7 2.8 2 7.8 8.9 5.3 2.2 3 4.2 4.8 2.9 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Villaverde Norte down, Anaza across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,481 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Villaverde Norte at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 2). Anaza away: 1.33 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Villaverde Norte, 1.20 for Anaza. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 12 Sept

VILLAVERDE NORTE

LDLLL1–3 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–4

ANAZA

DWLLL0–0 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–5 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Panadería Pulido	6	+6	13
2	Real Unión de Tenerife	6	+5	13
3	UD San Fernando	5	+10	12
4	Los Llanos	6	+3	10
5	San Miguel	6	+2	10
6	Mensajero	5	+2	10
7	San Bartolomé	5	+3	9
8	Las Palmas III	5	+3	8
9	Marino	5	+5	7
10	Tenerife C	5	+1	7
11	Unión Sur Yaiza	6	−1	7
12	Estrella	5	−2	7
13	Villa Santa Brígida	5	0	6
14	Lanzarote	6	−3	6
15	Anaza	5	−5	4
16	Laguna de Duero	6	−6	2
17	Playas Sotavento	6	−15	2
18	Villaverde Norte	5	−8	1