Villa Santa Brígida v Los Llanos prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Villa Santa Brígida 1–0 Los Llanos VILLA SANTA BRÍGIDA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Villa Santa Brígida win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.317

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Villa Santa Brígida win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Villa Santa Brígida 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–28–18
1′KICK-OFF Villa Santa Brígida v Los Llanos
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Villa Santa Brígida win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
41′We said Villa Santa Brígida at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 42–40–17
45′HALF-TIME Villa Santa Brígida 0–0 Los Llanos
46′SECOND HALF Villa Santa Brígida 0–0 Los Llanos
48′We said Villa Santa Brígida at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–44–16
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Villa Santa Brígida win 42%)
57′We said Villa Santa Brígida at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–51–15
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Villa Santa Brígida win: 54% at kick-off, 34% now
65′We said Villa Santa Brígida at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–58–13
71′We said Villa Santa Brígida at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–65–11
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Villa Santa Brígida win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
76′We said Villa Santa Brígida at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–72–9
80′We said Villa Santa Brígida at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–79–7
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Villa Santa Brígida win: 54% at kick-off, 14% now
84′We said Villa Santa Brígida at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–4
91′We said Villa Santa Brígida at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
91′Villa Santa Brígida score on 90′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 98–2–0
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Villa Santa Brígida win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Villa Santa Brígida 1–0 Los Llanos
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Villa Santa Brígida win: 54% at kick-off, 98% now
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Villa Santa Brígida win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 94%)
92′We said Villa Santa Brígida at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 1–0 · 98–2–0
FTFULL TIME Villa Santa Brígida 1–0 Los Llanos
FTVilla Santa Brígida 1–0 Los Llanos · Villa Santa Brígida win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Villa Santa Brígida are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Villa Santa Brígida 54%, draw 27%, Los Llanos 18%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Villa Santa Brígida v Los LlanosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Villa Santa Brígida win54%

Draw27%

Los Llanos win18%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup 12 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Villa Santa Brígida

Los Llanos

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Los Llanos	7	+2	10
15	Villa Santa Brígida	7	−5	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · villa santa brígida winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Villa Santa Brígida a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Villa Santa Brígida v Los Llanos~~1.51 – 0.75

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 10~~15 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Villa Santa Brígida win

Published at 53%, 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Villa Santa Brígida win	54%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Los Llanos win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Villa Santa Brígida or draw	82%	–	–
Villa Santa Brígida clean sheet	48%	–	–
Los Llanos clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.1%

0123450 11.5 7.4 3.0 1 15.1 12.1 4.4 2 11.6 8.6 3.3 3 5.9 4.4 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Villa Santa Brígida down, Los Llanos across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,499 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Villa Santa Brígida at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Los Llanos away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Villa Santa Brígida, 0.75 for Los Llanos. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LOS 0–0 VIL · VIL 3–0 LOS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 19 Sept

VILLA SANTA BRÍGIDA

LWDDLL1–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 1–2

LOS LLANOS

WDWLWL2–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD San Fernando	7	+15	18
2	Panadería Pulido	7	+11	16
3	Marino	7	+7	13
4	San Miguel	7	+5	13
5	Tenerife C	7	+4	13
6	Real Unión de Tenerife	7	+4	13
7	Las Palmas III	7	+6	12
8	Mensajero	7	−3	11
9	Los Llanos	7	+2	10
10	San Bartolomé	7	+1	10
11	Unión Sur Yaiza	7	0	10
12	Lanzarote	7	−3	7
13	Estrella	7	−6	7
14	Anaza	7	−5	6
15	Villa Santa Brígida	7	−5	6
16	Playas Sotavento	7	−15	3
17	Laguna de Duero	7	−9	2
18	Villaverde Norte	7	−9	2