Home › Football › Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 › Villa Santa Brígida v Las Palmas III

Villa Santa Brígida v Las Palmas III

Villa Santa Brígida

1–1Full time

Las Palmas III

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 23:30

Villa Santa Brígida 1–1 Las Palmas III VILLA SANTA BRÍGIDA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Villa Santa Brígida win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.793

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Villa Santa Brígida win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Villa Santa Brígida 42% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–30
1′KICK-OFF Villa Santa Brígida v Las Palmas III
21′21′ and it is 0–0: Villa Santa Brígida have scored. 0–0 · 40–31–29
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Villa Santa Brígida 1–0 Las Palmas III
24′We said Villa Santa Brígida at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–19–9
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Villa Santa Brígida win: 42% at kick-off, 71% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Villa Santa Brígida win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–8
45′HALF-TIME Villa Santa Brígida 1–0 Las Palmas III
46′SECOND HALF Villa Santa Brígida 1–0 Las Palmas III
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Villa Santa Brígida 1–1 Las Palmas III
FTVilla Santa Brígida 1–1 Las Palmas III · Villa Santa Brígida win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Villa Santa Brígida win42%

Draw28%

Las Palmas III win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 21:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · villa santa brígida winPublished 9 Oct 21:03

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Villa Santa Brígida a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Villa Santa Brígida win	42%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Las Palmas III win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Villa Santa Brígida or draw	70%	–	–
Villa Santa Brígida clean sheet	33%	–	–
Las Palmas III clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.0 8.4 5.1 1 10.6 12.9 6.9 2.7 2 7.8 8.5 4.8 3 3.7 4.0 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Villa Santa Brígida down, Las Palmas III across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,472 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 36 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 1.75 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Villa Santa Brígida at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Las Palmas III away: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Villa Santa Brígida, 1.13 for Las Palmas III. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~LAS 1–0 VIL · VIL 1–0 LAS · LAS 2–1 VIL · VIL 1–1 LAS

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

VILLA SANTA BRÍGIDA

WWDLWD3–0 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–1

LAS PALMAS III

LLWWDL0–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD San Fernando	4	+9	9
2	Real Unión de Tenerife	4	+2	9
3	Mensajero	4	+2	9
4	San Bartolomé	4	+3	8
5	Marino	4	+6	7
6	Las Palmas III	4	+3	7
7	San Miguel	4	+3	7
8	Panadería Pulido	4	+2	7
9	Los Llanos	4	+1	7
10	Lanzarote	4	+1	6
11	Villa Santa Brígida	4	0	5
12	Tenerife C	4	−2	4
13	Estrella	4	−3	4
14	Anaza	4	−3	4
15	Unión Sur Yaiza	4	−2	3
16	Laguna de Duero	4	−5	1
17	Villaverde Norte	4	−5	1
18	Playas Sotavento	4	−12	1