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Unión Sur Yaiza v Marino

Unión Sur Yaiza

2–1Full time

Marino

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

Unión Sur Yaiza 2–1 Marino UNIÓN SUR YAIZA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Unión Sur Yaiza win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.421

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Unión Sur Yaiza win47%

Draw27%

Marino win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · unión sur yaiza winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Unión Sur Yaiza a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Unión Sur Yaiza win	47%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Marino win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Unión Sur Yaiza or draw	74%	–	–
Unión Sur Yaiza clean sheet	35%	–	–
Marino clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.7 7.6 4.3 1 11.1 12.7 6.3 2.3 2 8.7 8.9 4.7 3 4.4 4.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Unión Sur Yaiza down, Marino across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,474 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.4% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.38 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Unión Sur Yaiza at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Marino away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Unión Sur Yaiza, 1.05 for Marino. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.38

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~MAR 0–0 UNI · UNI 1–1 MAR · MAR 1–1 UNI · UNI 2–1 MAR

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

UNIÓN SUR YAIZA

WDLLWL2–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 2–0 · 0–1

MARINO

LLLWDW0–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 6–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	San Miguel	5	+5	10
2	UD San Fernando	4	+9	9
3	Real Unión de Tenerife	4	+2	9
4	Mensajero	4	+2	9
5	Las Palmas III	5	+3	8
6	San Bartolomé	4	+3	8
7	Marino	4	+6	7
8	Panadería Pulido	4	+2	7
9	Los Llanos	4	+1	7
10	Lanzarote	4	+1	6
11	Villa Santa Brígida	5	0	6
12	Tenerife C	4	−2	4
13	Estrella	4	−3	4
14	Anaza	5	−5	4
15	Unión Sur Yaiza	4	−2	3
16	Laguna de Duero	4	−5	1
17	Villaverde Norte	4	−5	1
18	Playas Sotavento	4	−12	1