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Unión Sur Yaiza v Laguna de Duero

Unión Sur Yaiza

3–1Full time

Laguna de Duero

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Unión Sur Yaiza 3–1 Laguna de Duero UNIÓN SUR YAIZA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Unión Sur Yaiza win~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.223

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Unión Sur Yaiza win at 62%.
1′Much as we predicted: Unión Sur Yaiza was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–23–16
1′KICK-OFF Unión Sur Yaiza v Laguna de Duero
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Unión Sur Yaiza win: 62% at kick-off, 52% now
45′We said Unión Sur Yaiza at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 47%. 0–0 · 47–37–16
45′HALF-TIME Unión Sur Yaiza 0–0 Laguna de Duero
46′SECOND HALF Unión Sur Yaiza 0–0 Laguna de Duero
51′We said Unión Sur Yaiza at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–41–15
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Unión Sur Yaiza win: 62% at kick-off, 42% now
55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 42–44–15
55′Laguna de Duero find the net on 55′. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–28–58
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Unión Sur Yaiza 0–1 Laguna de Duero
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Unión Sur Yaiza win: 62% at kick-off, 13% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Laguna de Duero win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Unión Sur Yaiza win 43%)
56′We said Unión Sur Yaiza at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–28–59
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Unión Sur Yaiza win: 62% at kick-off, 12% now
63′We said Unión Sur Yaiza at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–27–64
65′A goal for Unión Sur Yaiza on 64′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 34–53–13
65′We said Unión Sur Yaiza at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–53–13
65′⚽ GOAL · 64' Unión Sur Yaiza 1–1 Laguna de Duero
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Unión Sur Yaiza win: 62% at kick-off, 34% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Laguna de Duero win 65%)
66′GOAL DISALLOWED · 66' Unión Sur Yaiza
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Unión Sur Yaiza win: 62% at kick-off, 8% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Laguna de Duero win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 53%)
70′A goal for Unión Sur Yaiza on 70′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 30–59–11
70′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–1 · 30–59–11
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Unión Sur Yaiza 1–1 Laguna de Duero
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Unión Sur Yaiza win: 62% at kick-off, 30% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Laguna de Duero win 70%)
71′We said Unión Sur Yaiza at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–60–11
71′GOAL DISALLOWED · 71' Unión Sur Yaiza
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Unión Sur Yaiza win: 62% at kick-off, 5% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Laguna de Duero win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 60%)
73′A goal for Unión Sur Yaiza on 73′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 26–63–10
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Unión Sur Yaiza 1–1 Laguna de Duero
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Unión Sur Yaiza win: 62% at kick-off, 26% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Laguna de Duero win 73%)
75′We said Unión Sur Yaiza at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–66–10
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Unión Sur Yaiza win: 62% at kick-off, 22% now
78′Unión Sur Yaiza score on 77′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 92–8–0
78′We published Unión Sur Yaiza at 62%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–1 · 92–8–0
78′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 92–8–0
78′⚽ GOAL · 77' Unión Sur Yaiza 2–1 Laguna de Duero
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Unión Sur Yaiza win: 62% at kick-off, 92% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Unión Sur Yaiza win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 70%)
83′We published Unión Sur Yaiza at 62%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
90′Unión Sur Yaiza find the net on 90′. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Unión Sur Yaiza 3–1 Laguna de Duero
91′We published Unión Sur Yaiza at 62%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
91′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Unión Sur Yaiza 3–1 Laguna de Duero
FTUnión Sur Yaiza 3–1 Laguna de Duero · Unión Sur Yaiza win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Unión Sur Yaiza are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Unión Sur Yaiza 62%, draw 23%, Laguna de Duero 16%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Unión Sur Yaiza v Laguna de DueroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Unión Sur Yaiza win62%

Draw23%

Laguna de Duero win16%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup 12 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Unión Sur Yaiza

Laguna de Duero

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Unión Sur Yaiza	7	0	10
17	Laguna de Duero	7	−9	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · unión sur yaiza winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

62% The market–

Us62%

We make Unión Sur Yaiza a 62% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Unión Sur Yaiza v Laguna de Duero~~1.90 – 0.82

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 10 v 2~~11 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Unión Sur Yaiza win

Published at 60%, 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Unión Sur Yaiza win	62%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Laguna de Duero win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Unión Sur Yaiza or draw	84%	–	–
Unión Sur Yaiza clean sheet	44%	–	–
Laguna de Duero clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.0%

0123450 7.5 5.1 2.3 1 12.0 10.7 4.2 2 11.6 9.4 3.9 3 7.4 5.9 2.5 4 3.6 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Unión Sur Yaiza down, Laguna de Duero across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,499 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

Unión Sur Yaiza at home: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Laguna de Duero away: 0.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.90 goals for Unión Sur Yaiza, 0.82 for Laguna de Duero. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 19 Sept

UNIÓN SUR YAIZA

LWLWDW2–4 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

LAGUNA DE DUERO

LDLLDL1–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 3–4 · 1–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD San Fernando	7	+15	18
2	Panadería Pulido	7	+11	16
3	Marino	7	+7	13
4	San Miguel	7	+5	13
5	Tenerife C	7	+4	13
6	Real Unión de Tenerife	7	+4	13
7	Las Palmas III	7	+6	12
8	Mensajero	7	−3	11
9	Los Llanos	7	+2	10
10	San Bartolomé	7	+1	10
11	Unión Sur Yaiza	7	0	10
12	Lanzarote	7	−3	7
13	Estrella	7	−6	7
14	Anaza	7	−5	6
15	Villa Santa Brígida	7	−5	6
16	Playas Sotavento	7	−15	3
17	Laguna de Duero	7	−9	2
18	Villaverde Norte	7	−9	2