UD San Fernando v Villa Santa Brígida prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

UD San Fernando 4–0 Villa Santa Brígida UD SAN FERNANDO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said UD San Fernando win~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.218

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said UD San Fernando win at 63%.
1′Much as we predicted: UD San Fernando was 63% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 62–25–13
1′KICK-OFF UD San Fernando v Villa Santa Brígida
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' UD San Fernando win: 63% at kick-off, 53% now
33′UD San Fernando score on 32′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 87–11–2
33′We published UD San Fernando at 63%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–11–2
33′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 87–11–2
33′⚽ GOAL · 32' UD San Fernando 1–0 Villa Santa Brígida
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' UD San Fernando win: 63% at kick-off, 87% now
45′HALF-TIME UD San Fernando 1–0 Villa Santa Brígida
46′SECOND HALF UD San Fernando 1–0 Villa Santa Brígida
50′UD San Fernando find the net on 49′. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–1–0
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' UD San Fernando 2–0 Villa Santa Brígida
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' UD San Fernando win: 63% at kick-off, 98% now
51′We published UD San Fernando at 63%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
73′We published UD San Fernando at 63%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
82′A goal for UD San Fernando on 81′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
82′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
82′⚽ GOAL · 81' UD San Fernando 3–0 Villa Santa Brígida
84′UD San Fernando score on 83′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
84′4 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 83' UD San Fernando 4–0 Villa Santa Brígida
FTFULL TIME UD San Fernando 4–0 Villa Santa Brígida
FTUD San Fernando 4–0 Villa Santa Brígida · UD San Fernando win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

UD San Fernando are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: UD San Fernando 63%, draw 25%, Villa Santa Brígida 13%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on UD San Fernando v Villa Santa BrígidaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

UD San Fernando win63%

Draw25%

Villa Santa Brígida win13%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 12 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

UD San Fernando

Villa Santa Brígida

6Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

Last match: 9 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	UD San Fernando	5	+10	12
13	Villa Santa Brígida	5	0	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ud san fernando winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

63% The market–

Us63%

We make UD San Fernando a 63% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.6, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · UD San Fernando v Villa Santa Brígida~~1.66 – 0.59

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D0 L1 · W1 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 6~~3 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UD San Fernando win	63%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Villa Santa Brígida win	13%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	36%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
UD San Fernando or draw	87%	–	–
UD San Fernando clean sheet	56%	–	–
Villa Santa Brígida clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.0%

0123450 11.5 5.8 1 17.0 10.6 3.0 2 14.3 8.3 2.5 3 7.9 4.6 4 3.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+UD San Fernando down, Villa Santa Brígida across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,481 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

UD San Fernando at home: 2.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Villa Santa Brígida away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for UD San Fernando, 0.59 for Villa Santa Brígida. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~VIL 0–2 UDS · UDS 2–1 VIL · UDS 2–0 VIL · VIL 0–2 UDS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 12 Sept

UD SAN FERNANDO

WWLWW3–0 · 5–0 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 1–0

VILLA SANTA BRÍGIDA

DLWDD0–0 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Panadería Pulido	6	+6	13
2	Real Unión de Tenerife	6	+5	13
3	UD San Fernando	5	+10	12
4	Los Llanos	6	+3	10
5	San Miguel	6	+2	10
6	Mensajero	5	+2	10
7	San Bartolomé	5	+3	9
8	Las Palmas III	5	+3	8
9	Marino	5	+5	7
10	Tenerife C	5	+1	7
11	Unión Sur Yaiza	6	−1	7
12	Estrella	5	−2	7
13	Villa Santa Brígida	5	0	6
14	Lanzarote	6	−3	6
15	Anaza	5	−5	4
16	Laguna de Duero	6	−6	2
17	Playas Sotavento	6	−15	2
18	Villaverde Norte	5	−8	1