Tenerife C v Villa Santa Brígida prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 19:30

Tenerife C 2–1 Villa Santa Brígida TENERIFE C WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tenerife C win~~53%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.339

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.395

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tenerife C win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Tenerife C was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–25–23
1′KICK-OFF Tenerife C v Villa Santa Brígida
11′Tenerife C score on 10′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 77–15–8
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Tenerife C 1–0 Villa Santa Brígida
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Tenerife C win: 53% at kick-off, 77% now
12′We published Tenerife C at 53%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–15–8
14′Tenerife C find the net on 13′. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
14′We published Tenerife C at 53%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Tenerife C 2–0 Villa Santa Brígida
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Tenerife C win: 53% at kick-off, 92% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Tenerife C win: 53% at kick-off, 93% now
39′We published Tenerife C at 53%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′HALF-TIME Tenerife C 2–0 Villa Santa Brígida
46′SECOND HALF Tenerife C 2–0 Villa Santa Brígida
53′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 2–0 · 96–3–1
74′A goal for Villa Santa Brígida on 74′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 87–12–1
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Tenerife C 2–1 Villa Santa Brígida
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Tenerife C win: 53% at kick-off, 87% now
75′We published Tenerife C at 53%. Our model now makes it 88%. 2–1 · 88–11–1
76′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 88–11–1
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Tenerife C win: 53% at kick-off, 93% now
FTFULL TIME Tenerife C 2–1 Villa Santa Brígida
FTTenerife C 2–1 Villa Santa Brígida · Tenerife C win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tenerife C are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tenerife C 53%, draw 25%, Villa Santa Brígida 22%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Tenerife C v Villa Santa BrígidaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Tenerife C win53%

Draw25%

Villa Santa Brígida win22%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 12 · matchday 1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tenerife C

Villa Santa Brígida

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Tenerife C	6	+3	10
14	Villa Santa Brígida	6	−4	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tenerife c winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 21 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off

53% The market49%

Us53%

~~Market~~49%

We make Tenerife C a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tenerife C v Villa Santa Brígida~~1.72 – 1.04

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 6~~6 v 14

~~The market · Tenerife C win~~49% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tenerife C win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tenerife C win	53%	49%	+4
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Villa Santa Brígida win	22%	24%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	52%	51%	+1
Both teams to score	53%	54%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	75%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	30%	31%	−1
Tenerife C or draw	78%	76%	+2
Tenerife C clean sheet	36%	–	–
Villa Santa Brígida clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 7.3 6.2 3.5 1 10.4 11.7 5.8 2.0 2 9.3 9.4 4.9 3 5.3 5.4 2.8 4 2.4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tenerife C down, Villa Santa Brígida across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,490 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tenerife C at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Villa Santa Brígida away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Tenerife C, 1.04 for Villa Santa Brígida. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~VIL 2–2 TEN · TEN 2–1 VIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 12 Sept

TENERIFE C

LDWLWW0–1 · 3–3 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 4–1 · 4–2

VILLA SANTA BRÍGIDA

DLWDDL0–0 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD San Fernando	6	+14	15
2	Panadería Pulido	6	+6	13
3	Real Unión de Tenerife	6	+5	13
4	Mensajero	6	+2	11
5	Marino	6	+6	10
6	Tenerife C	6	+3	10
7	Los Llanos	6	+3	10
8	San Miguel	6	+2	10
9	Las Palmas III	6	+3	9
10	San Bartolomé	6	+1	9
11	Unión Sur Yaiza	6	−1	7
12	Estrella	6	−3	7
13	Lanzarote	6	−3	6
14	Villa Santa Brígida	6	−4	6
15	Anaza	6	−5	5
16	Laguna de Duero	6	−6	2
17	Villaverde Norte	6	−8	2
18	Playas Sotavento	6	−15	2