Tenerife C v Las Palmas III prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Tenerife C 1–1 Las Palmas III TENERIFE C WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Tenerife C win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.884

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tenerife C win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tenerife C 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–24–31
1′KICK-OFF Tenerife C v Las Palmas III
45′HALF-TIME Tenerife C 0–0 Las Palmas III
46′SECOND HALF Tenerife C 0–0 Las Palmas III
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Tenerife C win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Tenerife C win 37%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.3 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 34–41–25
56′We said Tenerife C at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–41–25
64′We said Tenerife C at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–48–22
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Tenerife C win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
72′We said Tenerife C at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–58–18
77′We said Tenerife C at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–66–15
80′Las Palmas III find the net on 79′. 0–1. 0–1 · 2–14–84
80′We said Tenerife C at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–1 · 2–14–84
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Tenerife C 0–1 Las Palmas III
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Tenerife C win: 45% at kick-off, 2% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Las Palmas III win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 70%)
88′A goal for Tenerife C on 87′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 7–87–6
88′We said Tenerife C at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 1–1 · 7–87–6
88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Tenerife C 1–1 Las Palmas III
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Las Palmas III win 92%)
FTFULL TIME Tenerife C 1–1 Las Palmas III
FTTenerife C 1–1 Las Palmas III · Tenerife C win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tenerife C are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tenerife C 45%, draw 24%, Las Palmas III 31%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Tenerife C v Las Palmas IIIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Tenerife C win45%

Draw24%

Las Palmas III win31%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 12 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tenerife C

Las Palmas III

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Tenerife C	7	+4	13
7	Las Palmas III	7	+6	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tenerife c winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Tenerife C a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tenerife C v Las Palmas III~~1.80 – 1.45

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 19 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 12~~5 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tenerife C win

Published at 46%, 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tenerife C win	45%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Las Palmas III win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Tenerife C or draw	69%	–	–
Tenerife C clean sheet	24%	–	–
Las Palmas III clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.7 5.2 4.1 2.0 1 6.7 10.5 7.1 3.5 2 6.3 8.8 6.3 3.1 3 3.8 5.3 3.8 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tenerife C down, Las Palmas III across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,499 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tenerife C at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Las Palmas III away: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Tenerife C, 1.45 for Las Palmas III. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LAS 0–1 TEN · TEN 4–4 LAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 19 Sept

TENERIFE C

DWLWWW3–3 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 4–1 · 4–2 · 2–1

LAS PALMAS III

WDLDDW4–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD San Fernando	7	+15	18
2	Panadería Pulido	7	+11	16
3	Marino	7	+7	13
4	San Miguel	7	+5	13
5	Tenerife C	7	+4	13
6	Real Unión de Tenerife	7	+4	13
7	Las Palmas III	7	+6	12
8	Mensajero	7	−3	11
9	Los Llanos	7	+2	10
10	San Bartolomé	7	+1	10
11	Unión Sur Yaiza	7	0	10
12	Lanzarote	7	−3	7
13	Estrella	7	−6	7
14	Anaza	7	−5	6
15	Villa Santa Brígida	7	−5	6
16	Playas Sotavento	7	−15	3
17	Laguna de Duero	7	−9	2
18	Villaverde Norte	7	−9	2