San Miguel v Villaverde Norte prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

San Miguel 5–0 Villaverde Norte SAN MIGUEL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said San Miguel win~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.206

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said San Miguel win at 63%.
1′Much as we predicted: San Miguel was 63% before kick-off and our model makes it 63% now. 0–0 · 63–23–14
1′KICK-OFF San Miguel v Villaverde Norte
20′San Miguel score on 20′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 85–11–4
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' San Miguel 1–0 Villaverde Norte
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' San Miguel win: 63% at kick-off, 85% now
21′We published San Miguel at 63%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–11–4
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 85–12–3
44′San Miguel find the net on 44′. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
44′We published San Miguel at 63%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' San Miguel 2–0 Villaverde Norte
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' San Miguel win: 63% at kick-off, 97% now
45′HALF-TIME San Miguel 2–0 Villaverde Norte
46′SECOND HALF San Miguel 2–0 Villaverde Norte
58′A goal for San Miguel on 58′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' San Miguel 3–0 Villaverde Norte
59′We published San Miguel at 63%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
60′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
66′San Miguel score on 66′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' San Miguel 4–0 Villaverde Norte
67′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
73′San Miguel find the net on 73′. 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' San Miguel 5–0 Villaverde Norte
74′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME San Miguel 5–0 Villaverde Norte
FTSan Miguel 5–0 Villaverde Norte · San Miguel win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

San Miguel are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: San Miguel 63%, draw 22%, Villaverde Norte 14%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on San Miguel v Villaverde NorteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

San Miguel win63%

Draw22%

Villaverde Norte win14%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 12 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Miguel

Villaverde Norte

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	San Miguel	7	+5	13
18	Villaverde Norte	7	−9	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · san miguel winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

63% The market–

Us63%

We make San Miguel a 63% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · San Miguel v Villaverde Norte~~1.93 – 0.78

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 19 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 13 v 2~~4 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · San Miguel win

Published at 61%, 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Miguel win	63%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Villaverde Norte win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
San Miguel or draw	86%	–	–
San Miguel clean sheet	46%	–	–
Villaverde Norte clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.4%

0123450 7.6 4.9 2.1 1 12.4 10.4 3.9 2 12.1 9.3 3.7 3 7.8 6.0 2.3 4 3.8 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Miguel down, Villaverde Norte across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,499 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

San Miguel at home: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Villaverde Norte away: 0.67 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.93 goals for San Miguel, 0.78 for Villaverde Norte. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 19 Sept

SAN MIGUEL

WLWWLW3–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 3–0

VILLAVERDE NORTE

DLLLDL1–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD San Fernando	7	+15	18
2	Panadería Pulido	7	+11	16
3	Marino	7	+7	13
4	San Miguel	7	+5	13
5	Tenerife C	7	+4	13
6	Real Unión de Tenerife	7	+4	13
7	Las Palmas III	7	+6	12
8	Mensajero	7	−3	11
9	Los Llanos	7	+2	10
10	San Bartolomé	7	+1	10
11	Unión Sur Yaiza	7	0	10
12	Lanzarote	7	−3	7
13	Estrella	7	−6	7
14	Anaza	7	−5	6
15	Villa Santa Brígida	7	−5	6
16	Playas Sotavento	7	−15	3
17	Laguna de Duero	7	−9	2
18	Villaverde Norte	7	−9	2