San Miguel v Estrella prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 19:30

San Miguel 3–0 Estrella SAN MIGUEL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said San Miguel win~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.206

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said San Miguel win at 63%.
1′Little has changed for our model: San Miguel 63% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–23–14
1′KICK-OFF San Miguel v Estrella
22′A goal for San Miguel on 22′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 85–11–4
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' San Miguel 1–0 Estrella
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' San Miguel win: 63% at kick-off, 85% now
23′We said San Miguel at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–11–4
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 85–12–3
45′HALF-TIME San Miguel 1–0 Estrella
46′SECOND HALF San Miguel 1–0 Estrella
49′San Miguel score on 49′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' San Miguel 2–0 Estrella
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' San Miguel win: 63% at kick-off, 98% now
50′We said San Miguel at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
78′We said San Miguel at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
95′San Miguel find the net on 90′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' San Miguel 3–0 Estrella
FTFULL TIME San Miguel 3–0 Estrella
FTSan Miguel 3–0 Estrella · San Miguel win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

San Miguel are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: San Miguel 63%, draw 22%, Estrella 14%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on San Miguel v EstrellaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

San Miguel win63%

Draw22%

Estrella win14%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 12 · matchday 1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Miguel

Estrella

4Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	San Miguel	6	+2	10
12	Estrella	6	−3	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · san miguel winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

63% The market–

Us63%

We make San Miguel a 63% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · San Miguel v Estrella~~1.92 – 0.77

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 7~~8 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · San Miguel win

Published at 65%, 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Miguel win	63%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Estrella win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
San Miguel or draw	86%	–	–
San Miguel clean sheet	47%	–	–
Estrella clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.6%

0123450 7.8 4.9 2.1 1 12.6 10.4 3.9 2 12.2 9.2 3.6 3 7.8 5.8 2.3 4 3.9 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Miguel down, Estrella across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,490 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

San Miguel at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Estrella away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.92 goals for San Miguel, 0.77 for Estrella. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 12 Sept

SAN MIGUEL

DWLWWL1–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–4

ESTRELLA

WLDLWL3–1 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD San Fernando	6	+14	15
2	Panadería Pulido	6	+6	13
3	Real Unión de Tenerife	6	+5	13
4	Mensajero	6	+2	11
5	Marino	6	+6	10
6	Tenerife C	6	+3	10
7	Los Llanos	6	+3	10
8	San Miguel	6	+2	10
9	Las Palmas III	6	+3	9
10	San Bartolomé	6	+1	9
11	Unión Sur Yaiza	6	−1	7
12	Estrella	6	−3	7
13	Lanzarote	6	−3	6
14	Villa Santa Brígida	6	−4	6
15	Anaza	6	−5	5
16	Laguna de Duero	6	−6	2
17	Villaverde Norte	6	−8	2
18	Playas Sotavento	6	−15	2