San Bartolomé v Playas Sotavento prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 18:31

San Bartolomé 1–1 Playas Sotavento SAN BARTOLOMÉ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said San Bartolomé win~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.080

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said San Bartolomé win at 65%.
1′Little has changed for our model: San Bartolomé 65% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 65–20–15
1′KICK-OFF San Bartolomé v Playas Sotavento
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' San Bartolomé win: 65% at kick-off, 55% now
40′We said San Bartolomé at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 53%. 0–0 · 53–31–16
45′A goal for San Bartolomé on 45′. 0–0 · 51–33–16
45′HALF-TIME San Bartolomé 0–0 Playas Sotavento
46′16′: B. Essabbar on the scoresheet for San Bartolomé, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 84–13–3
46′⚽ GOAL · 16' San Bartolomé 1–0 Playas Sotavento · B. Essabbar
46′SECOND HALF San Bartolomé 1–0 Playas Sotavento
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' San Bartolomé win: 65% at kick-off, 84% now
47′We said San Bartolomé at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–13–3
49′We said San Bartolomé at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–36–16 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
52′We said San Bartolomé at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–3
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' San Bartolomé win: 65% at kick-off, 85% now
75′We said San Bartolomé at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
84′We said San Bartolomé at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' San Bartolomé win: 65% at kick-off, 95% now
FTFULL TIME San Bartolomé 1–1 Playas Sotavento
FTSan Bartolomé 1–1 Playas Sotavento · San Bartolomé win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

San Bartolomé are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: San Bartolomé 65%, draw 20%, Playas Sotavento 15%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on San Bartolomé v Playas SotaventoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

San Bartolomé win65%

Draw20%

Playas Sotavento win15%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 12 · matchday 1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Bartolomé

Playas Sotavento

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	San Bartolomé	6	+1	9
18	Playas Sotavento	6	−15	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · san bartolomé winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 00:21 · locked at kick-off

65% The market–

Us65%

We make San Bartolomé a 65% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · San Bartolomé v Playas Sotavento~~2.20 – 0.95

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 9 v 2~~10 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · San Bartolomé win

Published at 67%, 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Bartolomé win	65%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Playas Sotavento win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
San Bartolomé or draw	85%	–	–
San Bartolomé clean sheet	39%	–	–
Playas Sotavento clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.3%

0123450 5.1 3.8 2.0 1 9.2 9.3 4.2 2 10.3 9.5 4.5 3 7.5 6.9 3.3 4 4.2 3.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Bartolomé down, Playas Sotavento across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,490 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

San Bartolomé at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Playas Sotavento away: 0.67 scored, 4.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

2.20 goals for San Bartolomé, 0.95 for Playas Sotavento. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 11 Sept

SAN BARTOLOMÉ

WWDDDL1–0 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–4

PLAYAS SOTAVENTO

LLDLLD0–2 · 0–5 · 2–2 · 1–6 · 0–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD San Fernando	6	+14	15
2	Panadería Pulido	6	+6	13
3	Real Unión de Tenerife	6	+5	13
4	Mensajero	6	+2	11
5	Marino	6	+6	10
6	Tenerife C	6	+3	10
7	Los Llanos	6	+3	10
8	San Miguel	6	+2	10
9	Las Palmas III	6	+3	9
10	San Bartolomé	6	+1	9
11	Unión Sur Yaiza	6	−1	7
12	Estrella	6	−3	7
13	Lanzarote	6	−3	6
14	Villa Santa Brígida	6	−4	6
15	Anaza	6	−5	5
16	Laguna de Duero	6	−6	2
17	Villaverde Norte	6	−8	2
18	Playas Sotavento	6	−15	2