Real Unión de Tenerife v Unión Sur Yaiza prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 13:56

Real Unión de Tenerife 1–1 Unión Sur Yaiza REAL UNIÓN DE TENERIFE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Unión de Tenerife win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.772

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Unión de Tenerife win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Real Unión de Tenerife was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–30–21
1′KICK-OFF Real Unión de Tenerife v Unión Sur Yaiza
22′Real Unión de Tenerife find the net on 22′. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–15–5
22′We published Real Unión de Tenerife at 49%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–15–5
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Real Unión de Tenerife 1–0 Unión Sur Yaiza
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Real Unión de Tenerife win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
24′We published Real Unión de Tenerife at 49%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–5
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 80–16–5
45′HALF-TIME Real Unión de Tenerife 1–0 Unión Sur Yaiza
46′SECOND HALF Real Unión de Tenerife 1–0 Unión Sur Yaiza
58′A goal for Unión Sur Yaiza on 57′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 30–54–16
58′We said Real Unión de Tenerife at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 30–54–16
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Real Unión de Tenerife 1–1 Unión Sur Yaiza
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Real Unión de Tenerife win: 49% at kick-off, 30% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Real Unión de Tenerife win 30%)
59′We said Real Unión de Tenerife at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–55–15
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Real Unión de Tenerife win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
67′We said Real Unión de Tenerife at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–63–13
73′We said Real Unión de Tenerife at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–70–11
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Real Unión de Tenerife win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
78′We said Real Unión de Tenerife at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–77–8
83′We said Real Unión de Tenerife at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–86–5
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Real Unión de Tenerife win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
90′We said Real Unión de Tenerife at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–2
FTFULL TIME Real Unión de Tenerife 1–1 Unión Sur Yaiza
FTReal Unión de Tenerife 1–1 Unión Sur Yaiza · Real Unión de Tenerife win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Unión de Tenerife are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Unión de Tenerife 49%, draw 30%, Unión Sur Yaiza 21%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Real Unión de Tenerife v Unión Sur YaizaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Real Unión de Tenerife win49%

Draw30%

Unión Sur Yaiza win21%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 12 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Unión de Tenerife

Unión Sur Yaiza

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Real Unión de Tenerife	5	+5	12
14	Unión Sur Yaiza	5	−1	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real unión de tenerife winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Real Unión de Tenerife a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Unión de Tenerife v Unión Sur Yaiza~~1.30 – 0.76

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 11 Sept~~W4 D0 L1 · W2 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 6~~2 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Unión de Tenerife win	49%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Unión Sur Yaiza win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Real Unión de Tenerife or draw	79%	–	–
Real Unión de Tenerife clean sheet	47%	–	–
Unión Sur Yaiza clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.9%

0123450 13.7 9.1 3.7 1 15.9 12.9 4.7 2 10.7 7.9 3.0 3 4.7 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Unión de Tenerife down, Unión Sur Yaiza across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,481 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Unión de Tenerife at home: 0.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Unión Sur Yaiza away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Real Unión de Tenerife, 0.76 for Unión Sur Yaiza. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~REA 2–0 UNI · UNI 1–0 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 11 Sept

REAL UNIÓN DE TENERIFE

WLWWW1–0 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–0

UNIÓN SUR YAIZA

LLWLW0–1 · 2–4 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD San Fernando	5	+10	12
2	Real Unión de Tenerife	5	+5	12
3	San Miguel	5	+5	10
4	Panadería Pulido	5	+3	10
5	Mensajero	5	+2	10
6	San Bartolomé	5	+3	9
7	Las Palmas III	5	+3	8
8	Marino	5	+5	7
9	Tenerife C	5	+1	7
10	Los Llanos	5	0	7
11	Estrella	5	−2	7
12	Lanzarote	5	0	6
13	Villa Santa Brígida	5	0	6
14	Unión Sur Yaiza	5	−1	6
15	Anaza	5	−5	4
16	Laguna de Duero	5	−6	1
17	Villaverde Norte	5	−8	1
18	Playas Sotavento	5	−15	1