Playas Sotavento v Unión Sur Yaiza prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Playas SotaventoDrawUnión Sur Yaiza

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Unión Sur Yaiza 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Unión Sur Yaiza are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Playas Sotavento 33%, draw 28%, Unión Sur Yaiza 39%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Playas Sotavento v Unión Sur YaizaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Playas Sotavento win33%

Draw28%

Unión Sur Yaiza win39%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup 12 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Playas Sotavento

Unión Sur Yaiza

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Unión Sur Yaiza	8	+2	13
16	Playas Sotavento	8	−15	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · unión sur yaiza winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Unión Sur Yaiza a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Playas Sotavento v Unión Sur Yaiza~~1.21 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 26 Sept~~W0 D4 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 13~~16 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Playas Sotavento win	33%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Unión Sur Yaiza win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Playas Sotavento or draw	61%	–	–
Playas Sotavento clean sheet	27%	–	–
Unión Sur Yaiza clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.7 9.8 7.0 3.2 1 8.8 12.9 8.2 3.7 2 5.7 7.4 5.0 2.3 3 2.4 3.1 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Playas Sotavento down, Unión Sur Yaiza across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,506 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Playas Sotavento at home: 0.75 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 4). Unión Sur Yaiza away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Playas Sotavento, 1.35 for Unión Sur Yaiza. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 26 Sept

PLAYAS SOTAVENTO

DLLDDD2–2 · 1–6 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

UNIÓN SUR YAIZA

WLWDWW2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD San Fernando	7	+15	18
2	Panadería Pulido	8	+11	17
3	San Miguel	8	+10	16
4	Real Unión de Tenerife	8	+5	16
5	Tenerife C	8	+4	14
6	Marino	7	+7	13
7	Las Palmas III	8	+6	13
8	Unión Sur Yaiza	8	+2	13
9	Mensajero	7	−3	11
10	Los Llanos	8	+1	10
11	San Bartolomé	8	0	10
12	Anaza	8	−4	9
13	Villa Santa Brígida	8	−4	9
14	Lanzarote	7	−3	7
15	Estrella	8	−7	7
16	Playas Sotavento	8	−15	4
17	Laguna de Duero	8	−11	2
18	Villaverde Norte	8	−14	2