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Panadería Pulido v San Miguel

Panadería Pulido

4–1Full time

San Miguel

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Panadería Pulido 4–1 San Miguel PANADERÍA PULIDO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Panadería Pulido win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.320

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Panadería Pulido win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Panadería Pulido 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–25–21
1′KICK-OFF Panadería Pulido v San Miguel
20′Panadería Pulido score on 19′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 79–15–6
20′We said Panadería Pulido at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–15–6
20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Panadería Pulido 1–0 San Miguel
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Panadería Pulido win: 54% at kick-off, 79% now
30′We said Panadería Pulido at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–5
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 80–15–5
45′Panadería Pulido find the net on 44′. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
45′We said Panadería Pulido at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
45′Panadería Pulido ahead on 43′ through G. Almeida Exposito. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
45′⚽ GOAL · 44' Panadería Pulido 2–0 San Miguel
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Panadería Pulido win: 54% at kick-off, 96% now
45′HALF-TIME Panadería Pulido 2–0 San Miguel
46′SECOND HALF Panadería Pulido 2–0 San Miguel
63′A goal for San Miguel on 63′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 84–14–2
63′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 84–14–2
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Panadería Pulido 2–1 San Miguel
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Panadería Pulido win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
65′GOAL DISALLOWED · 65' San Miguel
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Panadería Pulido win: 54% at kick-off, 98% now
67′A goal for Panadería Pulido on 66′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
67′We said Panadería Pulido at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 66' Panadería Pulido 3–0 San Miguel
76′Panadería Pulido score on 76′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
76′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Panadería Pulido 4–0 San Miguel
79′San Miguel find the net on 78′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' Panadería Pulido 4–1 San Miguel
80′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Panadería Pulido 4–1 San Miguel
FTPanadería Pulido 4–1 San Miguel · Panadería Pulido win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Panadería Pulido are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Panadería Pulido 54%, draw 25%, San Miguel 21%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Panadería Pulido v San MiguelBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Panadería Pulido win54%

Draw25%

San Miguel win21%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup 12 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Panadería Pulido

San Miguel

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

Last match: 9 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	San Miguel	5	+5	10
4	Panadería Pulido	5	+3	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · panadería pulido winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Panadería Pulido a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Panadería Pulido v San Miguel~~1.68 – 0.94

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D1 L1 · W3 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 10~~4 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Panadería Pulido win	54%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
San Miguel win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Panadería Pulido or draw	79%	–	–
Panadería Pulido clean sheet	39%	–	–
San Miguel clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 8.2 6.4 3.3 1 11.7 11.8 5.3 2 10.1 9.3 4.4 3 5.7 5.2 2.5 4 2.5 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Panadería Pulido down, San Miguel across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,481 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Panadería Pulido at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). San Miguel away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for Panadería Pulido, 0.94 for San Miguel. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SAN 1–1 PAN · PAN 3–1 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 13 Sept

PANADERÍA PULIDO

WDLWW2–1 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 5–2 · 4–3

SAN MIGUEL

DWLWW1–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD San Fernando	5	+10	12
2	Real Unión de Tenerife	5	+5	12
3	San Miguel	5	+5	10
4	Panadería Pulido	5	+3	10
5	Mensajero	5	+2	10
6	San Bartolomé	5	+3	9
7	Las Palmas III	5	+3	8
8	Marino	5	+5	7
9	Tenerife C	5	+1	7
10	Los Llanos	5	0	7
11	Estrella	5	−2	7
12	Lanzarote	5	0	6
13	Villa Santa Brígida	5	0	6
14	Unión Sur Yaiza	5	−1	6
15	Anaza	5	−5	4
16	Laguna de Duero	5	−6	1
17	Villaverde Norte	5	−8	1
18	Playas Sotavento	5	−15	1