Panadería Pulido v Mensajero prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 20:00

Panadería Pulido 5–0 Mensajero PANADERÍA PULIDO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Panadería Pulido win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.409

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Panadería Pulido win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Panadería Pulido was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–27–26
1′KICK-OFF Panadería Pulido v Mensajero
19′A goal for Panadería Pulido on 19′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–17–9
19′We published Panadería Pulido at 48%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–9
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Panadería Pulido 1–0 Mensajero
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Panadería Pulido win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 75–17–7
45′HALF-TIME Panadería Pulido 1–0 Mensajero
46′SECOND HALF Panadería Pulido 1–0 Mensajero
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+3' Panadería Pulido win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
51′Panadería Pulido score on 51′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Panadería Pulido 2–0 Mensajero
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Panadería Pulido win: 48% at kick-off, 95% now
52′We published Panadería Pulido at 48%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
57′Panadería Pulido find the net on 57′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Panadería Pulido 3–0 Mensajero
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Panadería Pulido win: 48% at kick-off, over 99% now
58′We published Panadería Pulido at 48%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
58′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
60′A goal for Panadería Pulido on 59′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Panadería Pulido 4–0 Mensajero
61′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
82′Panadería Pulido score on 81′ to make it 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
82′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
82′⚽ GOAL · 81' Panadería Pulido 5–0 Mensajero
FTFULL TIME Panadería Pulido 5–0 Mensajero
FTPanadería Pulido 5–0 Mensajero · Panadería Pulido win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Panadería Pulido are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Panadería Pulido 48%, draw 26%, Mensajero 26%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Panadería Pulido v MensajeroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Panadería Pulido win48%

Draw26%

Mensajero win26%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 17:30

RoundGroup 12 · matchday 1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Panadería Pulido

Mensajero

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Panadería Pulido	6	+6	13
4	Mensajero	6	+2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · panadería pulido winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 00:21 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Panadería Pulido a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Panadería Pulido v Mensajero~~1.56 – 1.08

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 13 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 11~~2 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Panadería Pulido win

Published at 46%, 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Panadería Pulido win	48%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Mensajero win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Panadería Pulido or draw	74%	–	–
Panadería Pulido clean sheet	35%	–	–
Mensajero clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 8.1 7.2 4.2 1 10.6 12.4 6.3 2.3 2 8.6 9.1 4.9 3 4.5 4.8 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Panadería Pulido down, Mensajero across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,490 Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Panadería Pulido at home: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Mensajero away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Panadería Pulido, 1.08 for Mensajero. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~PAN 3–2 MEN · MEN 2–0 PAN · MEN 2–3 PAN · PAN 2–0 MEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 this season · since 13 Sept

PANADERÍA PULIDO

WDLWWW2–1 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 5–2 · 4–3 · 4–1

MENSAJERO

WLWWDD1–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD San Fernando	6	+14	15
2	Panadería Pulido	6	+6	13
3	Real Unión de Tenerife	6	+5	13
4	Mensajero	6	+2	11
5	Marino	6	+6	10
6	Tenerife C	6	+3	10
7	Los Llanos	6	+3	10
8	San Miguel	6	+2	10
9	Las Palmas III	6	+3	9
10	San Bartolomé	6	+1	9
11	Unión Sur Yaiza	6	−1	7
12	Estrella	6	−3	7
13	Lanzarote	6	−3	6
14	Villa Santa Brígida	6	−4	6
15	Anaza	6	−5	5
16	Laguna de Duero	6	−6	2
17	Villaverde Norte	6	−8	2
18	Playas Sotavento	6	−15	2